In order to organize all of the great posts in Scott’s series, I figured I would list them in one post. So here they are in order:

Prospect A-Z Day 1: Nolan Arenado

Prospect A-Z Day 2: Trevor Bauer

Prospect A-Z Day 3: Yoenis Cespedes

Prospect A-Z Day 4: Travis D’Arnaud

Prospect A-Z Day 5: Edwar Cabrera

Prospect A-Z Day 6: Nick Franklin

Prospect A-Z Day 7: Grant Green

Prospect A-Z Day 8: Bryan Harper

Prospect A-Z Day 9: Jose Iglesias

Prospect A-Z Day 10: Jurickson Profar

Prospect A-Z Day 11: Casey Kelly

Prospect A-Z Day 12: Hak-Ju Lee

Prospect A-Z Day 13: Matt Moore

Prospect A-Z Day 14: Derek Norris

Prospect A-Z Day 15: Oscar Taveras

Prospect A-Z Day 16: Matt Purke

Prospect A-Z Day 17: Kevin Quackenbush

Prospect A-Z Day 18: Robbie Ross

Prospect A-Z Day 19: Tyler Skaggs

Prospect A-Z Day 20: Tim Beckham

Prospect A-Z Day 21: Yu Darvish

Prospect A-Z Day 22: Arodys Vizcaino

Prospect A-Z Day 23: Zack Wheeler

Prospect A-Z Day 24: Xander Bogaerts

Prospect A-Z Day 25: Yoan Alcantara

Prospect A-Z Day 26: Zack Cox

In my opinion from reading the draft analysis and buzz from 2010, there were three typically highly regarded players that some people really liked and some didn’t, moreso than others. There’s a wide range of opinions on nearly every prospect, especially with those who are determined to always provide a contrarian opinion. I’m talking about Cox, Giants center fielder Gary Brown and Pirates pitcher Stetson Allie. They were all high picks; Allie was the last taken at 52nd overall, and he probably would’ve been taken sooner if his bonus demands weren’t as high.

Gary Brown was a very good college player at one of the top programs in the country, Cal State Fullerton. An injury in his junior season limited him, but it didn’t really affect his draft stock because it wasn’t expected to affect him long term. The Giants took him, and if he develops into the player he expected to, he’ll be a great fit at AT&T Park. He’ll catch anything in their spacious center field, and his bat will look great at the top of the lineup. He makes consistent contact and would be one of the fastest players in the league. What’s not to like?

In college, he didn’t take a lot of walks. On base percentage is a big stat now, and I believe in its importance. However, players can still succeed without walking a lot. At Fullerton, he had 41 walks in 774 plate appearances, a little over 5% of his PA. His OBP’s were high, but that was a product of his great batting average. Why should he take pitches he can hit just to walk when he can put them in play? There’s a line between being overaggressive and taking smart at bats where a player prefers to put the ball in play, and he hasn’t crossed to the bad side yet. His walk rate improved with San Jose this year, and he strikes out below the league average rate.

The Pirates were fortunate to see Stetson Allie still on the board at 52. Their organization has obviously been down in the dumps for a little bit, so they need to focus on adding talent to the organization and eventually, good things should happen. Allie certainly wasn’t only the 52nd most talented player in the draft class. He has a big, durable workhorse frame at 6’4, 225 and an aggressive, attacking mentality on the mound. His fastball can sit in the high 90′s, and his slider can touch 88-89 MPH. If he improves his changeup, he could be a really good starter. If not, that sounds like closer stuff.

However, his bonus demands and command troubles concerned teams. Players that can’t throw strikes often don’t advance very far, but Allie is only 20 years old. Coaches and development staff can work to improve mechanics and approach to work out those issues. It’s absolutely a risk to invest in a pitcher like Allie because he’s raw and not even close to reaching his potential. Isn’t it worth taking though? A bad team needs to add talent, even if their floors aren’t very high. The Pirates won’t make the playoffs by acquiring 5th starters and second division starters. At the other end of the spectrum, do teams like the Yankees have anything to lose themselves? They’re a really good team and probably don’t need any middling players, even if they may reach the majors faster than Allie.

Now back to Cox. Baseball America said he was the best pure hitter in all of last year’s draft. He set an Arkansas record with a .429 batting average and has a great swing. He can hit to all fields and make a lot of contact. In his first pro season, he started at high-A in the Florida State League and batted .335 and a .819 OPS before a midseason promotion to AA. His average dipped below .300 there, but he was still solid, batting .380 in July and .333 in August. Between both levels, he finished with a .797 OPS. That’s pretty solid for a player in his first full year as a professional, but there are certainly legitimate concerns.

It’s possible to look at it one of two ways. He’s a bit of a tweener in all regards. Looking at him as a third baseman, his current position, he may lack the appropriate power to profile there. His swing is a bit flat, but those that are optimistic about Cox believe he will begin generating enough loft in his swing to hit home runs. His isolated power (SLG-BA) was higher in AA than high-A, but that’s to be expected from moving from the Florida State League to the Texas League. If he moves to a position where his bat profiles a little better, say second base, he would probably be an above average hitter, but he probably doesn’t have the athleticism to handle playing up the middle. A quick and dirty comparison could be made to former Cardinals prospect Brett Wallace. He was a college hitter drafted in the first round whose bat didn’t profile at the position he belongs at defensively, first base.

However, Cox has plenty of time to prove he’ll be different. He’s his own player and shouldn’t be pigeonholed into a convenient comparison just for the sake of doing so. There are reasons to be optimistic about his future, and it’s also fair to say it’s reasonable to have doubts about him.

That’s obviously it for Prospect A-Z. I hope everyone enjoyed my little trip around the minors highlighting some names to know. There were many more that I didn’t talk about, and it could make for a second series, but maybe it would be best left for another offseason. Thanks for reading.

The main story about Alcantara isn’t about his baseball ability, but let’s start with that anyway. Baseball America ranked him as the #1 prospect in the Arizona Summer League after an outstanding season that was surprising to everyone. He batted .348 with a .367 OBP and .586 SLG. Those are impressive numbers for sure, but it’s a pretty nice hitters league, and he was only 16th in OPS. However, Alcantara was two years younger than the league average, and only three players ahead of him were also under 20. He was tied for third in the league in home runs and triples.

Alcantara wasn’t seen as a big time prospect as an amateur. He signed for $135,000, just a modest bonus for Latin American players. He bulked up in the last couple years, and his power stands out as his best tool. He also has a great arm which is why he profiles best in right field. He makes consistent, hard contact with very good bat control. He really showed none of those qualities the previous season in the Dominican Summer League, but he was still solid there. He hardly walks (only four in 210 AZL at bats), but he hardly strikes out either. Pitchers could exploit that in the future, but some players are able to make it work.

That’s not the big deal about Yoan Alcantara though. Earlier this offseason, Alcantara was involved in an identity fraud scandal. An investigator for Major League Baseball was arrested for accepting a bribe to take part in the scheme to help Alcantara pass through his background check. According to Baseball America, there were questions about Alcantara’s age leading up until the time he signed, and those concerns obviously came to fruition. A scout and trainer were also involved in the scheme, but it’s unknown whether or not Alcantara will face punishment from San Diego or the league office.

The league has tried to cut down on these identity fraud cases because it’s a rampant problem tin the Latin baseball market. Since Alcantara was signed, MLB has taken over the investigations themselves instead of contracting investigators like the one involved with Alcantara. They believe this is a more effective process for making sure players are who they say they are, and the new CBA put in even more strict regulations to be sure teams aren’t getting ripped off. This process also takes longer and results in long delays, sometimes up to a year, between the two parties reaching an agreement and the league approving it.

It’s easy to see why some players would take the risk of passing themselves off as someone else. Age is everything in the international amateur market. If a player is known to be 18, he’s not going to be a hot commodity because he’s more developed and has less room for future projection. 18 year olds get signed all the time, but they’re usually not the big bonus guys. The players that get the biggest bonuses are the 16 year olds that can hit, field and run while showing promising tools. If a player impresses a team by showing great power in batting practice or great range at shortstop and they think he’s younger than he actually is, he improves his stock. It can make a big difference.

This kind of fraud can go unnoticed for years. Perhaps the most recent significant case is “Leo Nunez”, the Marlins reliever who is actually named Juan Carlos Oviedo. He’s a year older than previously believed, and it wasn’t discovered until the end of the 2011 season. That’s after over five and a half years of major league service, playing for three organizations and being involved in two trades. Not that he would need his identification confirmed for trades, but the point is he’s a fairly visible player who had been able to get away with it, not just a run of the mill guy plugging away in the minors.

Another somewhat high profile case in the majors is Santiago Casilla, one of San Francisco’s best middle relievers. He’s posted an ERA under 2.00 in consecutive years, and he’ll turn 32 in June next season. However, for the first six years of his professional career with the A’s, he was known as Jairo Garcia. In spring training before the 2006 season, Casilla admitted he had taken a new identity, and he was actually three years older than previously believed. Instead of being a nice relief prospect, he was 26 years old, but it clearly didn’t stop him from having a solid career. Who knows what will happen with Yoan Alcantara, but if he has the talent, he will get a shot if MLB doesn’t come down unbelievably hard on him, but at this point it’s clear he probably doesn’t have quite as much projection as he used to.

Come back tomorrow when Prospect A-Z finally wraps up. Will it be an enthusiastic Brewer, a Cardinal that makes a lot of contact or a player that could’ve been playing in next week’s BCS Championship?

After the season, Kevin of RaysProspects reviewed everyone’s picks and talked about how they did. Here are my picks and Kevin’s responses to how I did:

Upper-Level Breakout:

Mike Lortz (of Bus Leagues Baseball) both hit and missed on Tim Beckham. Hit: “I also think this is year he breaks double digits in homeruns (12-15?)” (A late-season surge got him to 12) Miss: “I think he will be an all-star at Montgomery, and among the leaders in walks and OBP. He’ll also probably hit around .300.” (Walk rate took a step back; hit .271).

Lower-Level Breakout:

Mike Lortz also went with Josh Sale, getting things backwards. He thought Sale would struggle with plate discipline but otherwise live up the hype, but Sale drew a decent number of walks.

Wildcard Prediction:

Mike Lortz: This is going to my BusLeaguesBaseball.com leanings, where we celebrate the minor league experience: On Monday, July 4^th a young father with take his son or daughter to their first ever baseball game at Riverwalk Stadium in Montgomery. They’ll see Matt Moore strike out 10 Tennessee Smokies; Tim Beckham go 1 for 3, with a double, a walk, and a run scored; and the Biscuits win 5-2. The kid will be given a foul ball caught by a nearby fan, stay for the fireworks, and become a fan for life.

Verdict:

The Biscuits won 10-1 on July 4 thanks to a strong start from Jim Paduch, who fanned 9. Tim Beckham was 0-3 though he did walk and score. No word on foul balls.

Aruba is more well known for being a great vacation destination and a couple recent highly publicized missing person reports, but there have been four men born in Aruba that have reached the majors. Gene Kingsale was a light hitting outfielder who played for a number of years and a number of teams; Calvin Maduro was an ineffective starter for a number of years, and Radhames Dykhoff made just one career appearance with Baltimore. The last is more recognizable: Sidney Ponson. Ponson had a long career at the back of various rotations, and he was a key part of the miracle Dutch World Baseball Classic team. One more thing they have in common? All four were originally signed by Baltimore.

Perhaps the tide is turning in Aruba. It’s difficult to find minor leaguers who were born there, but it is known that two of them are Xander Bogaerts and his twin brother Jair. Both were signed by the Red Sox, and it’s Xander that’s developing into a very good prospect. They were both signed around the same time. Did the Red Sox sign Jair to build up some good will with Xander to secure the better prospect? Maybe, but Jair received a six figure bonus, and no team would pay that much just to do a favor. However, as it was discussed in a Prospect A-Z entry last month, it’s not uncommon in baseball for teams to acquire brothers.

The twins played together on the Red Sox Dominican Summer League affiliate in 2010. This wasn’t a Daniel and Henrik Sedin kind of thing though. While those two are both incredibly skilled, world class players, Xander is head and shoulders above his brother, and that showed in 2010. Xander batted over .300 with an .819 OPS, very impressive for a young hitter in a pitchers league. Jair’s OPS was less than .500. Again, it’s a league that favors pitchers, but that’s still significantly below the league average, and it was clear that there was some separation between the brothers.

That separation couldn’t have been more evident the following season. Before spring training, conventional wisdom suggested that Xander would start the season in extended spring training, and he did. However, instead of ending up in the New York Penn League or even remaining in the GCL, at the end of May, he reported to Boston’s low-A affiliate in Greenville. Meanwhile, Jair was back in the Dominican Summer League, three levels below Xander. He had a much respectable season while still only being 18 years old. His OPS was up to .791 in an identical amount of plate appearances as the previous season.

Xander’s performance also improved considering he jumped all the way to the South Atlantic League at 18 years old. He only batted .260, but his power was very impressive. He hit 16 home runs in just 72 games, and he slugged .509. His plate approach was very aggressive and needs to improve, but it’s hard to argue with a .834 OPS from a middle infielder (from now) that’s just 18 in a full season league. Recent trades may have depleted Boston’s system, but they could have something going in the lower levels with Xavier, Brandon Jacobs, Sean Coyle, Garin Cecchini and others. There’s talent there.

Bogaerts was expected to develop above average power down the road, but it apparently came sooner than anyone anticipated. On the other hand, it was probably expected that he would hit for a higher average than he did because he was noted for his ability to hit to all fields. His plate approach wasn’t as good as advertised, but he’s still young enough that he should be able to improve in that area. He plays shortstop now, but as he continues to mature physically, he’ll have to move to another position. His arm strength would allow him to play third base, and it seems like he’ll have the power to profile nicely there.

Come back tomorrow as Prospect A-Z winds down. Will it be a Padres prospect that’s a bit of a fraud or an athletic Marlins outfielder?

The Giants were dealing from a position of strength. Trying to defend their first World Series in San Francisco, they desperately needed a middle order of the bat with Buster Posey out for the season and a lineup already struggling with him, and their rotation appeared set. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain provide an experienced yet not very old 1-2 punch, Jonathan Sanchez has great stuff that he often couldn’t harness, and Madison Bumgarner is one of the league’s best young up and comers. It looked like they were set, so they could afford to trade a pitching prospect.

The Mets were in the first year of the new Sandy Alderson regime. With one of the highest payrolls in the league and one of the least talented rosters in the league, they needed a complete rebuild. With a handful of talented players on expiring contracts like Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez, they could sacrifice a few meaningless 2011 wins to accelerate the rebuilding process. They ended up not trading Reyes and Rodriguez couldn’t fetch them much because of the toxic vesting option for 2012, but Beltran netted them a prospect with great stuff.

Should the Giants have traded Wheeler for Beltran? On one hand, San Francisco GM Brian Sabean’s approach that since they’re the defending champions, they need to do anything they can to defend the title and win another World Series. On the other hand, everyone should be satisfied with one championship, and it wouldn’t be wise to hurt the long term stability of the franchise for two months for a player that will likely only be on the team for two months.

It’s easy to feel optimistic about the Giants rotation because of the talent and success, but let’s play devil’s advocate here. Matt Cain is a free agent after 2012, and Tim Lincecum’s salary is rising through arbitration. The Giants are a popular team in a big market, but even they’re limited by budgetary concerns at a certain point, and they’re already near that point. Bumgarner gives them cheap production, but now that Sanchez has been traded, they need to find a way to fill out the 4 and 5 spots. That shouldn’t be difficult because AT&T Park is favorable for pitchers, but teams don’t like spending free agent dollars on those spots because pitching is expensive on the market. One more factor that added to the risk of trading a good prospect for

The Mets preferred to receiving one really good prospect for Beltran instead of a package of lesser guys, and the Braves weren’t willing to meet that price. While they wouldn’t part with Mike Minor or another pitching prospect, the Giants stepped up to the plate. Now Wheeler is a Met, and he’s already their best prospect. Along with Matt Harvey, the Mets once again have a couple guys that could one day pitch against the top of their rotation instead of just settling for back of the rotation starters. Wheeler is still a couple years away though, and he’s going to need to stay healthy.

Wheeler was a top 10 pick in the 2009 draft and was compensated quite well for it, receiving a 3.3 million dollar bonus. He didn’t make his pro debut until the following year, and he was limited to only 58.2 innings in low-A due to a persistent finger injury. In those innings, he wasn’t bad. He allowed far too many baserunners, especially via the base on balls. He was able to strike out 10.7 batters per nine, so there certainly weren’t questions about his stuff. His Giants career continued in 2011 with San Jose where he cut his BB/9 down to 4.8 and continued to strike out a lot of batters.

After the trade, Wheeler made six starts for St. Lucie, the Mets’ equivalent of San Jose in the Florida State League. It’s a much friendlier pitching environment, and he took advantage. His first start lasted four innings, and he allowed four runs. In his last five starts, Wheeler struck out 27 in 23 innings and only allowed two more runs. It’s a small sample size, but he only walked five in 27 innings, a far cry from his previous walk rates. Was it simply a hot stretch, or were the continuing improvements in his mechanics paying off? 2012 will be telling.

His best pitch is his fastball which can sit in the mid 90′s with movement. He’s 6’4 and 185 pounds, which means Wheeler still has projectability left. His curveball and changeup can both be above average, and his changeup has improved during his career. Not many pitchers have this combination of size and stuff, so he just needs to prove he can stay healthy. He hasn’t shown chronic problems per se, but he’ll be pitching in AA next year and doesn’t have 200 innings of pro experience yet. He deserves credit for proving he’s ready to handle the next level in instructs, but 2012 will be a critical year for proving his durability. 150 innings is a good target to reach.

Come back Tuesday for the final week of Prospect A-Z. It will feature a Red Sox infielder with a really nice bat.

Buhner, McGee, Drabek, McGriff… 18 years ago, Kramer entertained viewers in an episode of Seinfeld complaining about George Steinbrenner’s penchant for trading away prospects that became quality major leaguers. In the present day, did the Yankees add another player to the list in the trade that brought them Javier Vazquez before the 2010 season? That would be Arodys Vizcaino. He hadn’t even pitched in a full season league at this point, but analysts recognized that he had great stuff and could eventually make an impact for Atlanta. He joined the Braves at the end of 2011 to chip in for an overworked bullpen.

At the time of the trade, Vazquez was coming off a great 2009 season with the Braves. Keith Law generated controversy by voting him 2nd in the Cy Young balloting that year, but it was certainly a defensible pick. He pitched 219 innings, a season high since he was traded from Montreal and posted career bests in ERA, WHIP and K/9. However, plenty of people thought the Yankees were making a mistake by acquiring Vazquez. He had an awful second half in his first stint in New York in 2004 and some felt he couldn’t handle the pressure of pitching in a market like New York. However, advocates of the trade pointed out that he wouldn’t be expected to be the team’s ace this time around. It still didn’t work out.

Somewhat reminiscent of the 90′s Braves, Atlanta has a deep rotation in the majors and throughout the minors. In July, they refused to part with their minor league arms for Carlos Beltran, a decision that may have cost them a playoff berth in 2011. In the majors, they already have Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson and Brandon Beachy. Their salary dump of Derek Lowe to Cleveland opened up a spot for Mike Minor or Randall Delgado to stick in the majors, and of course Julio Teheran and Vizcaino appeared for them in 2011 as well. That’s a lot of potential ML starters, ranging from top of the rotation to back end guys.

That could be why Vizcaino ends up in the bullpen long term. He’s had injury issues in the past, including an elbow injury that cost him significant time in 2010. In 2011, he pitched a career high 114.1 innings between the minors and majors, and it’s fair to say he probably would’ve thrown more had the Braves not spent the last month or so prepping him for a September callup as a reliever. He’ll need to prove he has the durability to remain in a rotation, but if not, he could be a great late inning reliever in a bullpen already stocked with them.

He offers three potential plus pitches now that his changeup is developing, so he has the arsenal to start if he can pitch 180 innings in a season. His fastball sits in the 92-94 range as a starter, and he can touch higher with movement. His out pitch is a curveball with sharp movement, and his changeup allows him to have success against left handed batters. Sometimes pitchers who have a cloudy future in terms of starting or relieving are limited because they can’t throw a changeup, but it’s the durability concerns that would keep Vizcaino out of a rotation. In addition to his prior injuries, his 6’0, 190 pound frame is a bit small compared to most major league starters.

Vizcaino should start 2012 back at AAA Gwinnett. The Braves rushed him, and not necessarily in a bad way, to the majors last year, and he could use some more minor league experience. There’s not really a spot for him in the majors now anyway. Minor, Delgado and Teheran should all be in front of him in the competition for the last spot in Atlanta’s rotation, and Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty should have the late innings covered until Fredi Gonzalez runs them into the ground again. Vizcaino can take time and prove he can start in the International League as long as he Braves don’t have injury issues.

Will the Yankees regret the trade? It’s certainly possible. For the last two seasons, they’ve had a hard time filling out their rotation behind C.C. Sabathia. A.J. Burnett appears to be a bust, and although Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia filled in admirably last year, but they need more choices with upside because it’s tough to count on pitchers like Garcia every season in the AL East. It looks like Hal Steinbrenner is going to have to admit that “Vizcaino was a good prospect, no question about it, but my baseball people love Javier Vazquez’s arm. They kept saying ‘Javier Vazquez, Javier Vazquez!”

Come back tomorrow for the last Friday entry in Prospect A-Z. Will it be the Mets’ new top prospect, a Mets infielder many say is overrated or the Mets’ rival’s top outfield prospect?

Yu Darvish was known to hardcore baseball fans prior to 2009, but his real international coming out party may have been the 2009 World Baseball Classic. For anyone in the U.S. that was up very early in the morning on March 5th, 2009, they were treated to a Darvish start that was impressive. He struck three out in four innings against China, and he finished the tournament with 20 strikeouts in 13 innings, a 2.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in Japan’s second WBC Championship.

For the next three years, fans in America wondered when Darvish would come to the majors and face the ultimate challenge of major league hitters. They would have to keep waiting several years though. After the 2010 season, it was rumored that he was signing by the Diamondbacks, but that didn’t make sense on any level. They’re a small market team coming off a bad year, and after all the buildup leading up to Daisuke Matsuzaka being posted and signed, there’s no way Darvish would just fly under the radar. It of course proved to be untrue, and he returned to Japan for one more season.

Conventional wisdom would indicate that the Yankees or Red Sox would win the bidding. Not only are they the biggest markets in the sport, but they both desperately need need some starting pitching. They also have experience using the posting system and getting players from Japan outside of the posting system as well. However, there are a couple new teams asserting themselves for international players, and it wouldn’t be New York or Boston. The Yankees put in what was described as a modest bid, but the Red Sox weren’t interested at all. For much of the blind bid period, Toronto was the rumored front runner, but in the end their ownership wasn’t willing to pay the expensive posting fee it would take. Two seasons after a new ownership group took over and acquiring Cliff Lee at the trade deadline and one season after making a huge free agent splash in Adrian Beltre and splurging in the international amateur market, it was the Rangers who put in the winning bid north of 50 million.

Texas has done a 180 as a franchise in recent years. They were hardly ever in contention, fans weren’t interested, and it wasn’t a great place to play, especially for pitchers. Under a new braintrust, the reputation began changing. They built a deep, largely homegrown pitching staff, and they reached the World Series in consecutive years. Also in consecutive years, the team lost lefties Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson in free agency and desperately needed a top of the rotation starter. Enter Yu Darvish.

There has been much hand wringing taking place on the internet during the entire process? “Why pay 50 million for an unproven player?” “All pitchers from Japan fail!” There’s certainly something to be said for the culture changes players have to go through, but that doesn’t just apply to players from Japan. Prospects from Latin America have to make the same adjustments too. Darvish won’t fail because Matsuzaka or Igawa failed. If he does, it will be on his own merits. Matt Harvey won’t fail because Andrew Miller did. They share nothing in common aside from previously pitching at North Carolina.

Perhaps the most noticeable difference between Darvish and Matsuzaka are their sizes. Matsuzaka is listed at 6’0 and 185 pounds which is a much smaller frame than most ML starters. In Japan, he was known for his heavy workloads and throwing a ton of pitches not just in games, but in his off days as well. His work ethic is to be commended and something I’ll speak about shortly. Darvish is a 6’5, 220 pound workhorse. That’s a pretty big pitcher even for ML standards and should be able to handle the stress put on his arm over the course of a season. Their usage in Japan is also different. Although Darvish had more innings pitched from ages 18-24, he had a gradual buildup to a career high 237 IP in 2011. Matsuzaka actually made more starts between those ages despite missing nearly half the season in 2002 with an injury. He pitched 347.2 professional innings before turning 20, something that would never happen here.

That said, I think part of the problems Matsuzaka experienced with Boston were related to changes in his off day regimens. Bobby Valentine has mentioned this on broadcasts before. The Red Sox changed some of his throwing programs to conform to MLB practices. If a player is having success with what he’s doing, even if it seems like he’s throwing too much, the player knows his body best and what helps him prepare. The Rangers have had no problems adapting new and different techniques to improve pitcher development, so they could take a hands off approach with Darvish if he has his own programs.

It’s also important to acknowledge that Darvish may simply be better than Matsuzaka. His career WHIP in Japan is .98 while Matsuzaka only had one season below 1.00. Darvish’s career ERA is under 2.00, and Matsuzaka wasn’t under 2.00 for a single season. He has a harder fastball, a great breaking ball and an above average cutter that’ll help him retire lefties. He has even more secondary pitches, but he may need to scrap them when facing ML hitters and just go with his best pitches.

Darvish has great talent and will have a great chance to succeed for a winning organization that knows how to handle their players. They’re doing everything they can to win, and it’s a huge risk to spend the money the Rangers are to negotiate with Darvish and then sign him. One more thing that needs to be said: Matsuzaka was really good in his first two seasons with the Red Sox. He had a 3.72 ERA, significantly above average considering he pitched home games at Fenway Park. His WHIP was 1.32, and he had 355 strikeouts in 372.1 innings. Obviously things went south, but he absolutely wasn’t a total bust.

Come back tomorrow for letter V in Prospect A-Z. Will it be a Cubs infielder that swings at every pitch, a Phillies catcher that swings at every pitch or a Braves pitcher that induces a lot of swings and misses?

Last week, Prospect A-Z wrapped up with Tyler Skaggs, the lefty Arizona received from Anaheim in the Dan Haren trade during the 2010 season. Skaggs has emerged as a very good pitching prospect and has advanced through the minors quickly. Just three years after he was drafted by the Angels, Skaggs could make his ML debut sometime in 2012. He was a part of a rotation at AA Mobile with great potential. That staff also included Trevor Bauer, Jarrod Parker, Wade Miley and Pat Corbin. Today, Prospect A-Z picks back up again with perhaps the most talked about minor leaguer in the Rays blogosphere, shortstop Tim Beckham.

Tim Beckham, SS, Tampa Bay Rays (2011: AA Montomgery, AAA Durham)

In one respect, being picked first overall was unfair to Beckham from the beginning. He was sandwiched as the first pick between David Price and Stephen Strasburg, two guys that everyone knew had elite, probably can’t miss talent. No one in the 2008 draft really did, but someone had to be taken first overall. At the time, he was considered to be a toolsy, high school shortstop that could develop into an above average player. He never really had star potential, but as the best high school position player with the chance for five average or better tools, it’s easy to see why he was coveted as a top pick.

Entering the 2008 season, the likely first overall pick wasn’t Beckham, but Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez. Surely the Rays would be interested after they spent the previous spring and summer scouting his Vanderbilt teammate, David Price. Even though Evan Longoria was about to emerge as maybe the best third baseman in baseball, Alvarez could always move to first base or designated hitter. He certainly had the bat for it; entering the 2008 season, Alvarez had 40 home runs in his college career, and it was clear that he was a top amateur slugger. Over the course of a season, things can change.

Early in the season, Alvarez suffered from a hamate injury which seems to have plagued so many hitters in recent years. He missed about 1/3 of the season, and his statistics suffered. He didn’t hit for as much power, and his draft stock slid. On the flipside, another college hitter saw his stock rise dramatically, Buster Posey of Florida State. He had just learned how to catch two years earlier after playing shortstop until his sophomore season, and he was a great athlete probably capable of playing any position. In his junior season, Posey posted phenomenal stats: .463 BA, .566 OBP, .879 SLG and 26 home runs in 68 games. The Rays chose Beckham though, and the Giants were fortunate enough to land Posey later.

Beckham has had an interesting career. It’s difficult to say he’s failing because to me, that would mean getting held up at a level and not advancing. Beckham has risen steadily through the system, he’s just never stood out like one would expect from someone taken first overall. Since he started his full season career in 2009, his OPS’ each year have been .717, .705 and .736. His batting averages have been .275, .256 and .271. His on base percentages have been .328, .346 and .328. His slugging percentages have been .389, .359 and .408. He certainly deserves credit for being a consistent performer when he’s younger than most players at that particular level, but that doesn’t necessarily lend itself to a promising major league career.

Where does Beckham fit in among first overall picks? He’s one of six that have never made the majors, although three of the others, including 2011 teammate Matt Bush, likely will. Steve Chilcott and Brien Taylor both retired without having played in the majors. I’ll break down the remaining 39 first overall picks into categories: below average (fewer than six years of service time,) average (six to 10 years of service time, no All-Star appearances,) good (at least one All-Star appearance or 10+ years of service time,) and great (multiple All-Star appearances.) Pretty arbitrary, but let’s look anyway. An asterisk indicates their career is ongoing and still has a chance to move up.

Have not appeared
Tim Beckham (2008, Rays)
Matt Bush (2004, Padres)*
Steve Chilcott (1966, Mets)
Gerrit Cole (2011, Pirates)
Bryce Harper (2010, Nationals)*
Brien Taylor (1991, Yankees)

Below average
Shawn Abner (1984, Mets)
Matt Anderson (1997, Tigers)
Bryan Bullington (2002, Pirates)
Al Chambers (1979, Mariners)
David Clyde (1973, Rangers)
Danny Goodwin (1971, White Sox; 1975, Angels)
Luke Hochevar (2006, Royals)*
Stephen Strasburg (2009, Nationals)*
Paul Wilson (1994, Mets)

Average
Kris Benson (1996, Pirates)
Ron Blomberg (1966, Yankees)
Mike Ivie (1969, Padres)
Jeff King (1986, Pirates)
Ben McDonald (1989, Orioles)
Dave Roberts (1972, Padres)
Delmon Young (2003, Devil Rays)*

Good
Bill Almon (1974, Padres)
Floyd Bannister (1976, Astros)
Tim Belcher (1983, Twins)
Andy Benes (1988, Padres)
Pat Burrell (1998, Phillies)
Tim Foli (1967, Mets)
Bob Horner (1978, Braves)
Mike Moore (1981, Mariners)
Phil Nevin (1992, Astros)
B.J. Surhoff (1985, Brewers)

Great
Harold Baines (1977, White Sox)
Jeff Burroughs (1968, Rangers/Senators)
Shawon Dunston (1982, Cubs)
Darin Erstad (1995, Angels)
Adrian Gonzalez (2000, Marlins)
Josh Hamilton (1999, Devil Rays)
Chipper Jones (1990, Braves)
Joe Mauer (2001, Twins)
Rick Monday (1965, A’s)
David Price (2007, Devil Rays)
Alex Rodriguez (1993, Mariners)
Darryl Strawberry (1980, Mets)
Justin Upton (2005, Diamondbacks)

Obviously Stephen Strasburg probably won’t finish his career with the below average criteria. It’s interesting that it seems like the great career group is skewed towards players in recent seasons. Where does Beckham fit in? Right now, I could see him settling into the average player group with a career as a fringe starter/utility infielder for several seasons. He’s still very young and anything could happen, but his career performance so far suggests that anything more than that is probably unlikely.

Come back tomorrow to read about a guy the Rangers hope is the next pitching sensation.

When the news broke of Dan Haren‘s trade to Anaheim last year, people immediately questioned the wisdom in letting an interim GM trade a big part of the franchise like Haren. He was having a down year, but it proved to just be a blip on the radar. At the time, it didn’t seem like the Diamondbacks got fair value at all, but the perception seems to be changing, and that’s thanks to Tyler Skaggs’ emergence. He was the PTBNL in that deal originally, and now it’s clear he’s the big catch in the trade. Meanwhile, Jerry DiPoto is now Haren’s general manager in Anaheim, and there’s no interim tag.

DiPoto has made quite a splash in his first offseason as a general manager. He came virtually out of nowhere to steal Albert Pujols right under the noses of St. Louis and Miami, and when C.J. Wilson made it clear he wanted to play close to home, and even though Anaheim didn’t really need to spend big money on the rotation, they made it work at a reasonable rate for both parties. They proved to be within striking distance of the Rangers last year, and now the back to back AL champs have to be worried. It should be a great race in 2012.

Back to Skaggs though. The Diamondbacks were happy to trade for him in 2010 after just missing out on him in the previous draft. He has a very good feel for pitching compared to most pitchers that come out of high school, and the Angels started him out in the Midwest League in his first full year as a professional. He represented Cedar Rapids in the All-Star Game, and by the time of the trade, he had a 3.61 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and had he recorded one fewer out, he would have 82 strikeouts in 82 innings.

Two weeks after the trade deadline, Skaggs was finally able to pitch for the Diamondbacks organization. Draft picks aren’t allowed to be traded until one year after they signed, and he didn’t sign until the deadline right on 8/15. So for two weeks, he couldn’t pitch in games. He finished the year by making four short starts for Arizona’s affiliate in the MWL, striking out 20 and only walking four in 16 innings. It was an impressive showing, but there were still a few doubts about his future upside.

One year later, those doubts seem to have been erased. Although it was in Visalia which is one of few parks in the league favorable to pitchers, Skaggs conquered the Cal League. He started the All-Star Game against the Carolina League, a great honor for a league pretty deep with pitchers this season. A greater honor came in July when he was tabbed to start the Futures Game for Team USA. This was in front of his future fans in Arizona. For Visalia, Skaggs struck out 11.2 batters per nine innings with a 3.22 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

The strikeout rate was particularly notable for Skaggs because scouts wanted to see his stuff continue to develop a little more after 2010. With a 6’4, 195 pound frame, it certainly wasn’t out of the question. His fastball needed a little more consistent velocity, and that should happen with his projectable frame. If his numbers against right handed batters are any indication, his changeup is improving. In addition to his curveball which is his best pitch, Skaggs has the potential for three plus pitches. He might have a future as a #2 starter.

Skaggs finished the year at AA Mobile, and Diamondbacks had a glimpse of their future rotation. At one point during the year, other top prospects like Trevor Bauer and Jarrod Parker also pitched for the BayBears, although Parker is now with the Oakland organization. Pat Corbin and Wade Miley also spent time in AA, and all of those guys have the potential to pitch in a major league rotation someday. Arizona went from worst to first from 2010 to 2011, and their future should be in good hands with great pitching depth in the organization. With Trevor Cahill, Dan Hudson and Ian Kennedy already manning the rotation, as long as they continue to build around Justin Upton, they will be in good shape.

Prospect A-Z will be taking a three day weekend and return on Tuesday with one of the following: Will it be another top pitching prospect for Seattle, a former #1 pick that’s been a disappointment or the Phillies’ strikeout king? Merry Christmas to all readers. May you, your family and friends all receive copies of Bus Leagues Experience Volume 2 under the tree.