Buhner, McGee, Drabek, McGriff… 18 years ago, Kramer entertained viewers in an episode of Seinfeld complaining about George Steinbrenner’s penchant for trading away prospects that became quality major leaguers. In the present day, did the Yankees add another player to the list in the trade that brought them Javier Vazquez before the 2010 season? That would be Arodys Vizcaino. He hadn’t even pitched in a full season league at this point, but analysts recognized that he had great stuff and could eventually make an impact for Atlanta. He joined the Braves at the end of 2011 to chip in for an overworked bullpen.

At the time of the trade, Vazquez was coming off a great 2009 season with the Braves. Keith Law generated controversy by voting him 2nd in the Cy Young balloting that year, but it was certainly a defensible pick. He pitched 219 innings, a season high since he was traded from Montreal and posted career bests in ERA, WHIP and K/9. However, plenty of people thought the Yankees were making a mistake by acquiring Vazquez. He had an awful second half in his first stint in New York in 2004 and some felt he couldn’t handle the pressure of pitching in a market like New York. However, advocates of the trade pointed out that he wouldn’t be expected to be the team’s ace this time around. It still didn’t work out.

Somewhat reminiscent of the 90′s Braves, Atlanta has a deep rotation in the majors and throughout the minors. In July, they refused to part with their minor league arms for Carlos Beltran, a decision that may have cost them a playoff berth in 2011. In the majors, they already have Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson and Brandon Beachy. Their salary dump of Derek Lowe to Cleveland opened up a spot for Mike Minor or Randall Delgado to stick in the majors, and of course Julio Teheran and Vizcaino appeared for them in 2011 as well. That’s a lot of potential ML starters, ranging from top of the rotation to back end guys.

That could be why Vizcaino ends up in the bullpen long term. He’s had injury issues in the past, including an elbow injury that cost him significant time in 2010. In 2011, he pitched a career high 114.1 innings between the minors and majors, and it’s fair to say he probably would’ve thrown more had the Braves not spent the last month or so prepping him for a September callup as a reliever. He’ll need to prove he has the durability to remain in a rotation, but if not, he could be a great late inning reliever in a bullpen already stocked with them.

He offers three potential plus pitches now that his changeup is developing, so he has the arsenal to start if he can pitch 180 innings in a season. His fastball sits in the 92-94 range as a starter, and he can touch higher with movement. His out pitch is a curveball with sharp movement, and his changeup allows him to have success against left handed batters. Sometimes pitchers who have a cloudy future in terms of starting or relieving are limited because they can’t throw a changeup, but it’s the durability concerns that would keep Vizcaino out of a rotation. In addition to his prior injuries, his 6’0, 190 pound frame is a bit small compared to most major league starters.

Vizcaino should start 2012 back at AAA Gwinnett. The Braves rushed him, and not necessarily in a bad way, to the majors last year, and he could use some more minor league experience. There’s not really a spot for him in the majors now anyway. Minor, Delgado and Teheran should all be in front of him in the competition for the last spot in Atlanta’s rotation, and Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty should have the late innings covered until Fredi Gonzalez runs them into the ground again. Vizcaino can take time and prove he can start in the International League as long as he Braves don’t have injury issues.

Will the Yankees regret the trade? It’s certainly possible. For the last two seasons, they’ve had a hard time filling out their rotation behind C.C. Sabathia. A.J. Burnett appears to be a bust, and although Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia filled in admirably last year, but they need more choices with upside because it’s tough to count on pitchers like Garcia every season in the AL East. It looks like Hal Steinbrenner is going to have to admit that “Vizcaino was a good prospect, no question about it, but my baseball people love Javier Vazquez’s arm. They kept saying ‘Javier Vazquez, Javier Vazquez!”

Come back tomorrow for the last Friday entry in Prospect A-Z. Will it be the Mets’ new top prospect, a Mets infielder many say is overrated or the Mets’ rival’s top outfield prospect?

Last week, Prospect A-Z wrapped up with Tyler Skaggs, the lefty Arizona received from Anaheim in the Dan Haren trade during the 2010 season. Skaggs has emerged as a very good pitching prospect and has advanced through the minors quickly. Just three years after he was drafted by the Angels, Skaggs could make his ML debut sometime in 2012. He was a part of a rotation at AA Mobile with great potential. That staff also included Trevor Bauer, Jarrod Parker, Wade Miley and Pat Corbin. Today, Prospect A-Z picks back up again with perhaps the most talked about minor leaguer in the Rays blogosphere, shortstop Tim Beckham.

Tim Beckham, SS, Tampa Bay Rays (2011: AA Montomgery, AAA Durham)

In one respect, being picked first overall was unfair to Beckham from the beginning. He was sandwiched as the first pick between David Price and Stephen Strasburg, two guys that everyone knew had elite, probably can’t miss talent. No one in the 2008 draft really did, but someone had to be taken first overall. At the time, he was considered to be a toolsy, high school shortstop that could develop into an above average player. He never really had star potential, but as the best high school position player with the chance for five average or better tools, it’s easy to see why he was coveted as a top pick.

Entering the 2008 season, the likely first overall pick wasn’t Beckham, but Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez. Surely the Rays would be interested after they spent the previous spring and summer scouting his Vanderbilt teammate, David Price. Even though Evan Longoria was about to emerge as maybe the best third baseman in baseball, Alvarez could always move to first base or designated hitter. He certainly had the bat for it; entering the 2008 season, Alvarez had 40 home runs in his college career, and it was clear that he was a top amateur slugger. Over the course of a season, things can change.

Early in the season, Alvarez suffered from a hamate injury which seems to have plagued so many hitters in recent years. He missed about 1/3 of the season, and his statistics suffered. He didn’t hit for as much power, and his draft stock slid. On the flipside, another college hitter saw his stock rise dramatically, Buster Posey of Florida State. He had just learned how to catch two years earlier after playing shortstop until his sophomore season, and he was a great athlete probably capable of playing any position. In his junior season, Posey posted phenomenal stats: .463 BA, .566 OBP, .879 SLG and 26 home runs in 68 games. The Rays chose Beckham though, and the Giants were fortunate enough to land Posey later.

Beckham has had an interesting career. It’s difficult to say he’s failing because to me, that would mean getting held up at a level and not advancing. Beckham has risen steadily through the system, he’s just never stood out like one would expect from someone taken first overall. Since he started his full season career in 2009, his OPS’ each year have been .717, .705 and .736. His batting averages have been .275, .256 and .271. His on base percentages have been .328, .346 and .328. His slugging percentages have been .389, .359 and .408. He certainly deserves credit for being a consistent performer when he’s younger than most players at that particular level, but that doesn’t necessarily lend itself to a promising major league career.

Where does Beckham fit in among first overall picks? He’s one of six that have never made the majors, although three of the others, including 2011 teammate Matt Bush, likely will. Steve Chilcott and Brien Taylor both retired without having played in the majors. I’ll break down the remaining 39 first overall picks into categories: below average (fewer than six years of service time,) average (six to 10 years of service time, no All-Star appearances,) good (at least one All-Star appearance or 10+ years of service time,) and great (multiple All-Star appearances.) Pretty arbitrary, but let’s look anyway. An asterisk indicates their career is ongoing and still has a chance to move up.

Have not appeared
Tim Beckham (2008, Rays)
Matt Bush (2004, Padres)*
Steve Chilcott (1966, Mets)
Gerrit Cole (2011, Pirates)
Bryce Harper (2010, Nationals)*
Brien Taylor (1991, Yankees)

Below average
Shawn Abner (1984, Mets)
Matt Anderson (1997, Tigers)
Bryan Bullington (2002, Pirates)
Al Chambers (1979, Mariners)
David Clyde (1973, Rangers)
Danny Goodwin (1971, White Sox; 1975, Angels)
Luke Hochevar (2006, Royals)*
Stephen Strasburg (2009, Nationals)*
Paul Wilson (1994, Mets)

Average
Kris Benson (1996, Pirates)
Ron Blomberg (1966, Yankees)
Mike Ivie (1969, Padres)
Jeff King (1986, Pirates)
Ben McDonald (1989, Orioles)
Dave Roberts (1972, Padres)
Delmon Young (2003, Devil Rays)*

Good
Bill Almon (1974, Padres)
Floyd Bannister (1976, Astros)
Tim Belcher (1983, Twins)
Andy Benes (1988, Padres)
Pat Burrell (1998, Phillies)
Tim Foli (1967, Mets)
Bob Horner (1978, Braves)
Mike Moore (1981, Mariners)
Phil Nevin (1992, Astros)
B.J. Surhoff (1985, Brewers)

Great
Harold Baines (1977, White Sox)
Jeff Burroughs (1968, Rangers/Senators)
Shawon Dunston (1982, Cubs)
Darin Erstad (1995, Angels)
Adrian Gonzalez (2000, Marlins)
Josh Hamilton (1999, Devil Rays)
Chipper Jones (1990, Braves)
Joe Mauer (2001, Twins)
Rick Monday (1965, A’s)
David Price (2007, Devil Rays)
Alex Rodriguez (1993, Mariners)
Darryl Strawberry (1980, Mets)
Justin Upton (2005, Diamondbacks)

Obviously Stephen Strasburg probably won’t finish his career with the below average criteria. It’s interesting that it seems like the great career group is skewed towards players in recent seasons. Where does Beckham fit in? Right now, I could see him settling into the average player group with a career as a fringe starter/utility infielder for several seasons. He’s still very young and anything could happen, but his career performance so far suggests that anything more than that is probably unlikely.

Come back tomorrow to read about a guy the Rangers hope is the next pitching sensation.

The promise was there because of Moore’s prototypical size and his top notch stuff. His fastball and curveball were both great pitches, and those allowed him to rack up strikeout after strikeout in the South Atlantic League even though his changeup wasn’t very far along yet. Moore made strides the next season in the Florida State League where a strong second half allowed his BB/9 to drop down to 3.8 while his strikeout rate remained consistent. He struck out 208 in the regular season which led all of minor league baseball. With the improvements in command, Moore’s stock also improved.

Moore had a pattern of getting off to slow starts during season and improving in the second half, and after a rough April, it looked like it may happen again with Montgomery. However, he bucked the trend and settled in to have an incredible season. His strikeout rate was down a bit but who cares? His walk rate was well below 3.0, his hit rate was its lowest since his second season in the Appy League, and he was emerging as one of the game’s best prospects, if he wasn’t already.He was putting it all together. The Rays typically promote players a bit slower than the continents drift, but it was impossible to deny Moore the challenge of moving to AAA. He threw his first career no hitter with Montgomery, and it might not be his last.

His national coming out party (to prospect fans anyway) was probably the Futures Game at Arizona in July. He was in the midst of an incredible season, and fans wanted to see if he could live up to the hype. In short… yes. He was firing high 90′s fastballs, and his curveball had so much velocity and movement that people were wondering if he had a new, great pitch. He was amped up to pitch in a short burst, and there’s not much to take from Futures Game appearances, but it was impressive. He made one more start with Montgomery and was then promoted to AAA Durham.

Usually it takes players some time to adjust to new levels, but Moore may have been even better. His strikeout rate rose to 13.5 per nine innings, and even though his walk rate ticked up a bit, his hit rate improved. His WHIP was nearly identical to his Montgomery WHIP, and his ERA was down. He was a key cog in Durham’s rotation which was lacking depth in the rotation. He helped them reach the playoffs once again, but they were quickly dispatched by Columbus. The question had to be asked: would he be promoted to the majors?

The conventional wisdom was no; the Rays closely monitor service time for young players, and it appeared as if he may have been wearing down at the end of the season. However, the Rays were suddenly in the playoff hunt, and they could use some firepower in the bullpen. He was promoted.

Probably due to nerves, he struggled early on. His fastball location was poor, but he quickly settled in. The Rays needed a starter to step in late in the season, and they went to Moore. In five innings, he struck out 11 Yankees and only allowed five baserunners. It still wasn’t really his coming out party to fans not already familiar with him though, as impressive as it was. That would be just eight days later when the Rays tabbed Moore to be their game one starter against the Rangers in the ALDS. James Shields, David Price and Jeremy Hellickson were all unavailable for the start of the series, and Joe Maddon took a risk and gave the ball to the talented yet inexperienced Moore.

Despite what Buck Martinez desperately tried convincing viewers, Moore’s success that day wasn’t simply due to the shadows or the Rangers’ inexperience in dealing with him, although the latter is much more plausible. The Rays had plenty of success in the same environment. Moore was sharp, pitching seven shutout innings while only allowing four baserunners. He threw strikes, made nice adjustments in the middle innings and completely shut down one of the league’s best lineups. He entered game four in a relief role and allowed a run, but it was still a solid outing.

There’s no telling what Moore’s ceiling is. He could be the best pitching prospect in all of baseball with a true ace ceiling. In a recent survey conducted by ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, big league talent evaluators were virtually split when asked if they would prefer Moore or phenom Stephen Strasburg (Yu Darvish was also an option, but no one chose him.) Hopefully the Rays don’t have him start the season in AAA due to service time concerns, but it would be understandable. What may help Moore reach his potential is the often undervalued sixth tool- humor.

Matt Moore Commercial

The tool is still raw, perhaps lagging behind the rest of his game, but any evaluator can see the potential is there. He starts off uneasy and tentative, stammering through his lines and asking Little Caesars if they are in fact Little Caesars despite looking right at their menu and dialing their phone number seconds earlier. He slowly gains confidence throughout the commercial and begins showing his comic upside. At the end, he looks like a finished product. “Hope they’re hungry” is delivered perfectly as he walks away. If he can fully develop his humor tool, he may be able to help Evan Longoria finally find that missing cap.

Come back Monday for the continuation of Prospect A-Z. Will it be Washington’s power hitting catcher, Detroit’s high priced third base prospect or a Toronto pitcher who probably couldn’t have pitched better this season?

Jose Iglesias, SS, Boston Red Sox (2011: AAA Pawtucket, MLB Boston)

Cuba has produced two highly touted, slick fielding shortstops in the last couple years. At the end of the 2009 season, the Red Sox signed Jose Iglesias for a six million dollar bonus. He made his unofficial debut in the Arizona Fall League that offseason, and just after the start of the 2010 season, the Blue Jays signed Adeiny Hechavarria to a major league contract totaling 10 million. They’re about the same age, and Iglesias had to move to second base to accommodate Hechavarria on some national teams.

Hechavarria got the bigger contract, but I think the younger Iglesias will end up being the better player in the majors. Hechavarria is the better defensive player, but both are gold glove caliber. The difference comes in their bats. Not that a gold glove shortstop needs to be a middle of the order hitter, but players still have to reach a certain level at the plate and not be a complete black hole. There are doubts about whether or not both could do that, but it seems like scouts are more optimistic about Iglesias in that regard.

That’s not to say Iglesias is a slam dunk to hit. With Pawtucket in 2011, he only hit .235 and both his OBP and SLG were under .300. I’m not sure if a shortstop that fields every ball hit to the left side without fail would make up for a season at the plate like that. Scouts believe he will be able to hit with good bat control and bat speed, but the power will never be there. His aggressive approach works against him, and low on base percentages attest to that. He’s still young though, and it can take time for Cuban players to quickly adjust to American culture in the upper minors.

Hechavarria’s numbers were actually better this year but still unimpressive. He has the same aggressive approach that prevents him from reaching base often, and he’s not going to hit for power either. His pro career started with Toronto’s Florida State League affiliate, but he was quickly promoted to AA where he improved partially due to being able to make a connection with manager Luis Rivera. In 2011, he was promoted to Las Vegas for a short time where he crushed the ball. It was a small sample size in a great hitting environment, so it’s unlikely that he made significant strides in that short period.

Both players have had recent AFL stints, and 2012 will be pivotal seasons for both. With Marco Scutaro and Yunel Escobar currently handing shortstop for Boston and Toronto respectively, an injury will probably have to occur for either Cuban to get playing time this season. Scutaro is more replaceable than Escobar for sure, but both prospects need to show they’re deserving of becoming ML starters. They’ll both go to AAA in 2012, and Iglesias needs to do much better in his second chance at the level. He made his ML debut in 2011, but it was a very brief cup of coffee.

Tomorrow’s Prospect A-Z entry will obviously be the letter J. Will it be a hot shortstop from Curacao, a toolsy Cubs infielder people can’t stop talking about or a fireballing Royals reliever?

Coming into the draft, Franklin appeared to be an athletic shortstop who would provide quality defense and make enough contact to be a solid hitter. If someone went into a coma during the 2009 draft and woke up after the 2010 season, he wouldn’t believe it was the same Nick Franklin. He was supposed provide average power at best, but in the Midwest League, he became the first teenager since Prince Fielder in 2003 to hit 23 or more home runs. Now, scouts were questioning whether or not he could stay at shortstop long term.

2011 was a bit of a different story. He was set to play in High Desert which of course is likely the best hitters park in the minors. How many home runs would he be able to hit? 25? 30? Maybe not if he earned a promotion during the season which was considered possible. However, the season got off to a rocky start with a couple injuries that kept him out for a while plus a bout with mono. He only ended up playing 88 games, and that certainly contributed to his down numbers.

Franklin did not meet the lofty expectations in homer happy High Desert. He put up modest statistics in 64 games with the Mavericks, hitting for a .275 average, .356 OBP and .411 SLG. The power was obviously down from last year with only five home runs. The injuries were a large contributor, and it seemed like he never got it going. His rate stats looked okay especially for a shortstop, yet they were below the Cal League averages, especially for a High Desert player.

That’s why it was a shock when Franklin was promoted to AA. It was only an okay performance, but he actually had a little prior experience in the Southern League from last season, so they felt comfortable that he could handle the promotion. His average improved to .325 and he hit for a little more power. It wasn’t quite a lost season because he was able to advance to AA, but the injuries really limited his performance. Ideally he doesn’t have as many setbacks in 2012, and he could have a shot to reach AAA Tacoma.

To make up for lost time, the Mariners assigned Franklin to the Arizona Fall League to pick up some of the at bats he missed during the season. Again it was a subpar performance, but it’s hard to draw any conclusions from a month in an offseason league, although it tends to favor hitters for sure. He only hit for .258 without much power and struck out a lot. However, in the game where he was most visible, he stood out. He was the MVP of the Rising Stars Game with four hits including an opposite field home run against first overall pick Gerrit Cole.

Franklin should be a very good offensive player up the middle. He makes the most of his 6’1, 170 pound frame and puts a lot of effort into his swing. It may not lead to a great average, but his plate approach is good enough to keep the strikeouts from being a huge concern. The Mariners could certainly use some power, so they should be excited about his future. However, it may not be at shortstop. Because of his arm strength, he may have to move to second base which is already occupied by #2 overall pick Dustin Ackley. It’s not a problem since Ackley could eventually end up back in the outfield though. Franklin also has the athleticism to pick up some steals, and he was 18/22 in stolen base attempts in 2011.

Prospect A-Z continues tomorrow with the letter G. Will it be Trevor Bauer‘s college teammate, a recent Oakland first rounder trying a new position or a Padres infielder who’s kind of a jerk?

At the time of the Roy Halladay trade in 2009, D’Arnaud was considered by most to be the third prospect in the deal. Kyle Drabek finished the season in AA and appeared to be a near-ready potential #2 or 3 starter. Michael Taylor finished his season at AAA and looked to make his ML debut the next season and eventually become a middle of the order slugger with decent athleticism. Taylor never played a game for the Blue Jays organization. he was flipped to Oakland for first base prospect Brett Wallace, and he was eventually traded to Houston for former Phillies prospect Anthony Gose. Did Toronto originally want Gose but were turned down by the Phillies?

At the time, D’Arnaud was a former high draft pick plugging along. In 2008, he hit well in 64 games between short season Williamsport and low-A Lakewood. He started 2009 with Lakewood and did okay. For a 20 year old, he held his own and showed off his tools, although they didn’t translate to tremendous production. The numbers weren’t impressive, but the scouting reports said to not worry, he would hit. When the Blue Jays acquired him, it wasn’t a guarantee that he would develop.

D’Arnaud would begin his Blue Jays career in Dunedin, a stone’s throw away from the Phillies’ spring training complex in Clearwater, also the home of their own Florida State League affiliate. He was limited to half a season due to back injuries, and once again his performance was solid. His rates actually hardly deviated from the previous season; his batting averaged increased by four points, and his OBP and SLG decreased by four and eight points respectively. He essentially held serve, and considering the injury and how tough it is to hit in the FSL, it was a solid season. His caught stealing percentage increased.

2011 was a breakout year for D’Arnaud with AA New Hampshire. The great scouting reports turned into production, and he won Eastern League MVP. That’s absolutely not an infallible measure of a player’s worth, but he clearly had a great season. He hit career highs in just about every major offensive category, and his slash stats were through the roof compared to his last two seasons with a .311 average, .371 OBP and .542 SLG. He had always shown decent power, but with 21 home runs and 55 extra base hits, he showed that he could live up to the glowing reports about him earlier in his career.

In 2012, D’Arnaud will start in Las Vegas and has a shot to make his ML debut by the end of the season. This will be a hitting haven unlike his previous home venues, so his numbers may become inflated. It will be hard to gauge the season he has because of it, but he certainly shouldn’t go back to hitting .250. To secure his spots in the majors, he’ll need to continue improving defensively and work on his plate approach. He strikes out a little more than most and doesn’t walk very much, but players can still succeed with that profile. He had a pretty high BABIP last season, but his power suggests he was making hard contact and should be able to maintain his higher average.

D’Arnaud may find himself blocked at catcher in Toronto, but it’s a good problem to have. J.P. Arencibia is coming off a solid rookie year, but he’s a flawed player. He’s an aggressive hitter that won’t hit for a high average, but his power and defense make him a solid major leaguer. If D’Arnaud reaches his potential, he should become a better player than Arencibia. However, right behind D’Arnaud is Carlos Perez, another talented catcher. He’s coming off an underwhelming season in the Midwest League and still needs time to develop, but the Blue Jays certainly have a lot of potential at the position. Perhaps one could be used as a trade chip to improve the rotation. There’s a division rival with surplus pitching in need of a catcher…

Start your weekend with Friday’s A-Z entry. Will it be an Arizona outfielder whose name Phillies fans would prefer to forget, Minor League Baseball’s 2011 strikeout king or yet another Rays starter with great stuff?

To start off, it’s important to talk about Cespedes’ immense talent. He first became known to the casual baseball fan just weeks ago when a long, bizarre scouting video surfaced on Youtube. However, scouts have been following him for years. He’s a five tool talent with his hit tool probably being his worst, grading out around average which means he could be a .270 hitter. His power will be his meal ticket with some saying he has plus plus power which could make him a 30 home run hitter. Unlike fellow defector Dayan Viciedo, Cespedes is an athlete who could be capable of 20-25 steals. He plays a solid centerfield too, but some believe he may have to move to a corner outfield. That’s okay because he has an arm that grades out as plus or better.

Scouts have been keeping tabs on him for years, knowing that one day he would defect and teams would have an opportunity to sign him. Cespedes had been a rising start in the Cuban National Series, and he stood out in international competitions as well. He holds their single season home run record with 33, and he’s one of the most talented players to ever come from Cuba. Although the video gave him notoriety among fans, there was very little actual baseball taking place. His home run trot that takes a calendar to time was impressive as was his pig roast, but there probably wasn’t much information to be gleaned from it. We know about Cespedes, but who’s going to sign him?

Let’s start with all 30 teams on the board. I do believe 30 front offices would love to have Cespedes in the organizations if baseball was played in a vacuum, but obviously not all teams are a good fit. First, we’ll throw out the two teams whose ownership situations are in flux, the Dodgers and Astros. Perhaps the Matt Kemp contract extension flies in the face of this logic, but I still don’t know if they’re going to be in the market for pricy, unproven players. The Astros are in transition between owners right now, and I don’t expect a huge transaction taking place at this time. While we’re on the Southern California market, let’s throw out the Angels too. They have the budget and a need for offense, but their outfield is so crowded that I just can’t see them in the mix. With veterans Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells already making big money plus youngsters Mike Trout and Peter Bourjos ready to patrol centerfield, it’s hard to picture them sinking more money into their outfield.

Two offseasons ago, the Reds signed Aroldis Chapman to a six year, 30 million dollar contract. That’s expected to be the minimum it’ll take to secure Cespedes, and that’s going to limit a lot of teams’ interest. Let’s throw out some small market teams that likely can’t afford to spend 30 million on an amateur. The Reds kind of came out of nowhere to get Chapman, and it could happen again, but we’re trying to narrow the field down here. Good-bye Indians, Rays, Padres and Diamondbacks. They could all use him, but that’s a lot of money to throw around. Let’s toss the Royals out too. They’ve proven they’re willing to spend on amateur talent and free agents, but with Lorenzo Cain, Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur already penciled in for 2012 plus Wil Myers on his way, I don’t foresee them having much interest.

Those aren’t the only teams that probably won’t be able to fit Cespedes in the budget. There are teams with higher payrolls that are probably pushing the limits of their budgets and may not be able to fit him in. The Brewers, Giants and Cardinals could all have key free agent losses, and if they can’t afford to pay their own expensive players, I’m not sure they’ll want to pay for another. The Braves and Rockies aren’t losing free agents, but it’s like that neither will be making any big additions this offseason. The Orioles might be throwing around some money this offseason, but I think they’ll prefer a proven player like Prince Fielder. The White Sox are a team that would be a good fit for Cespedes. They have credibility when it comes to signing Cubans with Alexei Ramirez and Dayan Viciedo and would probably like to move Alex Rios back to a corner outfield spot, but after recent spending sprees, they may be out of money.

That leaves 14 teams. The Mets are intriguing because they’re in a big market with a lot of money coming off the books, but it doesn’t feel like a fit to me. The Tigers don’t mind spending big, but not so much in the amateur market. With the Cubs’ new management in place, there’s experience spending in the international market, but that would be a bold move in their first offseason with the team. The Reds just signed Chapman two offseasons ago, but like some other teams, they may have budget issues, and it’s not a pressing need. The Phillies have money to spend, but it’s not their MO to pay for talent in this area. The Mariners and A’s are two AL West teams desperate for some offense and could be players here, but I don’t think it’ll happen.

That leaves seven teams. The Rangers and Blue Jays each throw money around as much as anyone for amateur talent, but in my estimation I just didn’t feel like they would be in the top five. It’s not a pressing need for Texas after signing Leonys Martin last season with Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz already occupying the outfield. The Blue Jays need to focus on addressing their pitching, but centerfield has been a need in recent years too. With five teams left, let’s take a look at them individually.

5. Boston Red Sox- Offense obviously isn’t their issue, but they have the money and an opening in the outfield to make it happen. With J.D. Drew on the market and a need for some right handed power to balance the lineup, it makes sense on a personnel level. After acquiring Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford last offseason, will they continue adding pieces to the lineup? I think they’ll focus on pitching first after their September meltdown, but when there’s a high-priced talented player out there, the Red Sox are usually involved.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates- What? They’ve had about a million losing seasons in a row, but under Neal Huntington, they’re focused on building from the ground up, spending big in the draft and international market. They already have Andrew McCutchen in center, but Cespedes profiles well in a corner, and they could use a lot more power. They’ve spent a lot of money on improving the pitching depth in the organization, but they’re still thin in terms of position players. Cespedes helps them immediately there.

3. New York Yankees- Like the Red Sox, the Yankees are going to be a factor any time a talented players comes available. The difference between Boston and New York here is the Yankees don’t have an immediate need in the outfield. Curtis Granderson is an MVP candidate, and Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner are solid on the corners. It’s likely that Jesus Montero handles the DH duties this year, so Cespedes might have to spend a year in the minors, which the Yankees probably want to avoid with Scranton playing as a barnstorming team this year. They could use Gardner or Swisher in a trade to try to upgrade their rotation that still lacks depth.

2. Washington Nationals- The Nats have a gaping hole in center at both the major league level and in the organization as a whole. For years they’ve been involved in trade rumors to upgrade with names such as B.J. Upton and Denard Span, but here’s a talented free agent that will require no compensation. Under new ownership, they’ve increased spending in the draft and at the major league level, and they have another chance to do it in an area where they could use some help. The Nationals could be very dangerous very soon.

1. Miami Marlins- The team I think will sign Cespedes. To me, they’re a perfect fit in just about every way. They have a hole in center they’ve tried just about everything to fill. Cameron Maybin didn’t work out, and they tried moving former Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan out there, but he hasn’t hit as well since his rookie year and probably won’t play quality defense there. Moving into a new stadium, they want to make some splashes and generate fan interest, and Cespedes would be just that. Ozzie Guillen was apparently instrumental is securing the aforementioned Ramirez and Viciedo and helping them adjust to the United States, and he could throw his weight around to land Cespedes.

Come back tomorrow for letter D, where I’ll write about one of the following three: Toronto’s future backstop, Houston’s son of a former big leaguer or the first and only player I’ve interviewed for this site.

Bauer entered the 2011 season at UCLA as one of the nation’s top starters. In his freshman and sophomore seasons, his ERA hovered around 3.00 on a staff with another standout, Gerrit Cole. In 2010, he was a key factor in UCLA winning their first game in the College World Series ever and advancing to the final series before losing to now back-to-back champion South Carolina. Despite the accolades and statistics, he wasn’t considered to be a top pick before the 2011 season. He was seen as a mid-first rounder to sandwich round guy, but that all changed.

After 2010, Bauer’s stuff showed improvement, and in the end that reflected in his junior season numbers. His ERA dropped to a minuscule 1.25, and his WHIP was well below 1.00. He struck out an absurd 203 batters in 136.2 IP, five more innings than last year despite having two fewer starts. 10 of his 16 starts were complete games which became very controversial. Why would UCLA have him pitch a full nine innings in blowout wins against inferior opponents? College coaches have no obligation to players with great pro potential, but it would still make sense to preserve him for the entire season. However, Bauer is different.

He takes a more cerebral approach to pitching than most and really studies his craft. From his research in mechanics to extensive, unusual pregame warmup routines that have him long tossing from foul pole to foul pole, Bauer is determined to get the absolute most out of his body and stuff. This should lead to durability not often seen in pitchers now even though he’s smaller than most of his contemporaries. If anyone at the collegiate level could handle Bauer’s workload, it’s Bauer.

Many comparisons between prospects and current major leaguers are lazy or inaccurate, and it’s likely that comparing Bauer to Tim Lincecum is both. They’re both small righties from the Pac-10, and they each take unique approaches to pitching compared to their peers. One interesting parallel was their draft stock. Teams regret passing on Lincecum because of perceived red flags at the time- his max effort delivery and small stature. It would be fair to have the same concerns about Bauer, but maybe teams wouldn’t want to make that same mistake again. With his low 90′s fastball and a wide array of offspeed pitches highlighted by a plus curveball, teams couldn’t afford to make that mistake again.

Thanks to his complete dominance, Bauer was awarded the Golden Spikes Award, presented to the best amateur baseball player in the United States. The last five winners, Tim Lincecum, David Price, Buster Posey, Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper tell you all you need to know about the prestige of this award. With his improved stuff and dominating statistics, the Diamondbacks made him the third overall pick in the draft, just two picks after teammate Gerrit Cole was drafted by Pittsburgh. In an era of nearly every draft pick getting a seven figure bonus having to wait until midnight on August 15th to sign, Arizona was able to secure Bauer and get him out pitching early, perhaps selling the league on the possibility of him helping the team’s playoff hunt.

Bauer ultimately didn’t reach the majors, but he did make it to AA to help Mobile win the Southern League. His time in the Southern League didn’t go particularly well, but with both Visalia and Mobile, he posted great strikeout numbers. His command wasn’t as good as it was as an amateur, and in a small sample size of innings, it can be attributed to nerves and just starting out in pro ball. He’s a pitcher that loves striking batters out, and with 43 in 26 pro innings, that’s easy to see. However, to have success, he won’t be able to bounce as many curveballs and changeups in front of the plate to strike out every batter. As smart as Bauer is, he’ll be able to make the adjustments.

It’s not difficult to imagine Bauer highlighting Arizona’s rotation very soon, and it’s not difficult to imagine him making his big league debut in 2012. He should start out in Mobile or AAA Reno, and he could finish the year in Arizona either in the rotation or out of the bullpen to limit his innings. With fellow prospects Tyler Skaggs and Jarrod Parker on the way in addition to Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson already in the majors, the Diamondbacks should be considered a team on the rise.

Check out tomorrow’s post to read about the hottest name in baseball circles right now. His core strength cannot be questioned.

You can find more of Kurt’s efforts on his Original Miami Marlins Facebook page, his feature story on growing up on Miami baseball, and his photo essay of Miami Stadium.

Bus Leagues Baseball: Have you heard whether or not the Marlins will recognize any of the extensive history of Miami baseball or the history of the Orange Bowl in their new stadium? Do you think they should?

Kurt Schweizer: I think they absolutely should. There is obviously a tremendous amount of college and pro football history with the OB but there is also a bit of baseball history there. In 1956, the Miami Marlins played a game there in front of a sold out house and Satchel Paige was the Marlins starting pitcher. And the Caribbean League Championship Series was played there in 1990 and I attended one of those games. Also, Miami Stadium’s predecessor, Miami Field, was located in the Southwest corner of the OB parking lot. That stadium was before my time but I had some relatives whom attended games there. I’m not sure to what extent they will honor all of that history, but, so far, I understand they are building some kind of artistic monument piece that is made from the Orange Bowl’s main sign. So, while I think that is nice, it doesn’t make up for the fact that an important and large piece of Miami sports history was destroyed unnecessarily, in my view.

BLB: What are your feelings on the Marlins becoming the Miami Marlins?

KS: I have very mixed feelings about that and about them even being called the Marlins in the first place. On the one hand, it is nice as an honor to history, but on the other hand, it was a completely new team and completely separate from the two Minor League franchises that used the name at Miami Stadium, so I always thought they should have a completely new name. And, of course, I fully understood that they used “Florida” in the name to appeal to fans all over the state and not just in Miami. So, I understand why many of the Marlins’ fans in Broward, Palm Beach and other counties, are unhappy about the upcoming change to Miami Marlins. I don’t blame them. And to me, the Miami Marlins name will always refer to the team I grew up watching in the 80s and the eras prior to that. So, if it were up to me, I would give them a totally new name or would at least keep it as it stands currently, as the Florida Marlins. But, it is what it is. I will have to just get used to it.

BLB: What’s next for your history projects?

KS: I’m always interested in doing or contributing to any projects related to the history of pro baseball and Spring Training in Miami, as well as other parts of Florida. The Miracle have asked me to be involved in their celebration of that franchise’s 20 year anniversary of moving to Fort Myers, so I am looking forward to that. Also, just today, in fact, a local historic preservation group contacted me about using some of my pictures and an article on their website. So, I am happy that there is still an interest out there.

BLB: You worked briefly in the front office of the Fort Myers Miracle. Why move with the franchise after it left Miami?

KS: Initially, I wasn’t at all happy that the franchise moved out of Miami, first to Hialeah, then to the West Miami area, on the campus of FIU and then to Pompano Beach for two years before finally settling in Ft Myers. I went to see them in each location and actually worked for them part time in Miami, Hialeah and FIU prior to Ft Myers, meeting some great people along the way, most notably Marlins GM Sonny Hirsch, who was a local Miami sports legend and worked in radio and TV and also in the Marlins/Orioles front office for about 30 years. I miss him and wish I could’ve worked for him much longer. But, after a while, I became more accepting and more comfortable with each of those moves because I understand all too well that, ultimately, the baseball business is just that—a business. They had to make those moves for business purposes and I can’t blame them for that. They have found great business success in Fort Myers, under the leadership of Mike Veeck and Marv Goldklang. And after a while, it just came to the point that the Miami area was not the right environment to sustain Minor League Baseball. So, I am happy that they have found a suitable home over there on the west coast of Florida. There were very few regular fans left in the franchise’s Miami fan base by the time the 80s came around. There were some great fans but just not enough of them. But, in Ft. Myers, there are a lot of very passionate baseball fans over there who love Minor League ball and give them the support that they just weren’t able to get enough of during their last several years in the Miami area. Plus I enjoyed working and living in Ft. Myers while I was with their front office. It would have been really nice for me to work full time in Miami Stadium, though, because it was my first love but I wouldn’t trade my experience in Ft. Myers for anything. I met a lot of great fans and worked with a lot of great people over there, as well, and I learned a lot from them, about the sports industry and about life.

BLB: Do you feel the Miracle have a responsibility to acknowledge the history of the franchise now that they are in Fort Myers?

KS: Yes, I think every pro sports franchise owes that to their fans and to themselves. Tradition and history is such a huge part of sports, but particularly to pro baseball, in my opinion. Generally, the Miracle have been very open to honoring their franchise’s rich and varied history. And I am always honored and happy to help them do that in whatever way I can.

We want to thank Kurt again for his time.

Bus Leagues Baseball: When did you start documenting the end of Miami Stadium?

KS: Well, I knew, going back to about the early-90s, that its days were really numbered. There was a fight to save it from demolition, that was led by a couple of the producers of the documentary and I was involved with that. But, that movement was not ultimately successful. So I was not surprised when I read in the Miami Herald that demolition had begun. That was in late May of 2001. I went there the next day and just started taking as many pictures as I could from every angle feasible. I got permission from the president of the demolition company to be on the property as long as I wore a hardhat and agreed to the assumption of risk for legal purposes, which I did. So, over the course of about the next two months after that, I went to the stadium about 3 or 4 days a week to document the demolition process. And even in the years prior to that, I got permission from the City of Miami Parks Department to take pictures of it several times and they were very cooperative with me on that.

BLB: When did you realize the end was near?

KS: The first real sign was the Marlins moving out of there, in the middle of the 1988 season. Then when the Orioles discontinued using it for Spring Training after the 1990 season, I knew it was very likely just a matter of time. The baseball team from the downtown campus of Miami Dade College still used it through 1996 and I even went to many of those games, but I knew that team, alone, would not be enough for the City to justify keeping the stadium open. So, it was bought, I believe, in about 1999 by a housing developer. And then the clock started to speed up a bit on its death watch. So when the demolition finally started to occur a couple years later, I was still sad but not a bit surprised.

BLB: How important was Miami Stadium to the people of the area? What made Miami Stadium so important to baseball history in general?

KS:  It was important as it hosted not only Minor League ball from the time just after it opened in 1949 right up to 1988 but also Spring Training, from 1950 to 1990. It helped put Florida on the map for both of those things. And in Florida, especially, the two have generally been pretty intertwined. Plus that was and still is very important to the economy and tourism industry in the state. Miami Stadium was also used for many other events besides baseball, such as concerts and things of that nature, in addition to other sports. And from the purely historical perspective, there were countless Hall of Famers who played at Miami Stadium, either in a spring game and/or in a Minor League game. On top of that, it had an innovative architectural design, which included the grand cantilevered roof that it became famous for amongst architects and some photographers.

BLB: Miami seems to get a bad rap in the baseball world these days. Why do you think that is? Have the attitudes towards baseball in South Florida changed? 

KS: Many people have wrestled with that question for a while. It’s not an easy question to answer. There are many variables. But, I would say that Miami has, for over 70 years now, been primarily a football town, for college and then also pro. And, of course, we are one of only a handful of metro areas to have the big four major sports, but football is usually where most of the local sports fans want to put their entertainment dollar. But, baseball has always, I believe, been the favorite local participatory sport, which doesn’t always translate into significant revenue for admission-charging teams. Another aspect, too, is that there are so many non-sports choices for people all over Florida from which to choose to spend their money. So, baseball, as a spectator sport, often gets left behind. But, the main way I have seen baseball in Florida flourishing is within Spring Training, which is, indeed, very closely tied to tourism. For the last 15 or so years that it was held there, though, attendance suffered during the spring at Miami Stadium, because the area that it was in was not perceived as being a safe place to go to anymore. I think that’s a relative thing, but I could see where people thought that.

BLB: You made a comment on a website once that said you will never set foot in the new Marlins stadium. Why not?

KS: That is a question that I am a bit hesitant to fully answer because I have several acquaintances and former classmates whom work for the Florida Marlins. I respect all of those people and I think they are very good at what they do and I don’t want to insult any of them in any way shape or form. Having said that, though, I know that a lot of people in South Florida were not pleased with the way their ownership group went about securing some of the funding for the new stadium and I can see why some people have some hard feelings towards the Marlins about that. Also, for me, it has a lot to do with the demolition of the Orange Bowl and the way all of that was handled. Of course, my main interest related to sports is baseball history. But I am also a huge fan of football and its history. I think the fact that the Orange Bowl was torn down without any attempt at retrofitting it or preserving any part of its structure is almost a crime. I will miss the Orange Bowl almost as much as Miami Stadium. And I know a lot of people share that sentiment and many even more so than myself, I’m sure. Another important aspect that I think the Marlins and the City overlooked is the traffic infrastructure issue around the new stadium. Anyone who has driven to that area during rush hour will understand what I’m referring to. Of course, it wasn’t a problem for the Dolphins and Hurricanes because the vast majority of their games were on weekends. But, I don’t think that area’s roads can properly support game-day traffic on business days during the afternoon rush, which, of course, is when most of the Marlins games will start. If I am proven wrong, so be it, but I certainly don’t want to try it, personally.

(Thanks to Kurt for this interview. Part 3 coming Friday!)