In my opinion from reading the draft analysis and buzz from 2010, there were three typically highly regarded players that some people really liked and some didn’t, moreso than others. There’s a wide range of opinions on nearly every prospect, especially with those who are determined to always provide a contrarian opinion. I’m talking about Cox, Giants center fielder Gary Brown and Pirates pitcher Stetson Allie. They were all high picks; Allie was the last taken at 52nd overall, and he probably would’ve been taken sooner if his bonus demands weren’t as high.

Gary Brown was a very good college player at one of the top programs in the country, Cal State Fullerton. An injury in his junior season limited him, but it didn’t really affect his draft stock because it wasn’t expected to affect him long term. The Giants took him, and if he develops into the player he expected to, he’ll be a great fit at AT&T Park. He’ll catch anything in their spacious center field, and his bat will look great at the top of the lineup. He makes consistent contact and would be one of the fastest players in the league. What’s not to like?

In college, he didn’t take a lot of walks. On base percentage is a big stat now, and I believe in its importance. However, players can still succeed without walking a lot. At Fullerton, he had 41 walks in 774 plate appearances, a little over 5% of his PA. His OBP’s were high, but that was a product of his great batting average. Why should he take pitches he can hit just to walk when he can put them in play? There’s a line between being overaggressive and taking smart at bats where a player prefers to put the ball in play, and he hasn’t crossed to the bad side yet. His walk rate improved with San Jose this year, and he strikes out below the league average rate.

The Pirates were fortunate to see Stetson Allie still on the board at 52. Their organization has obviously been down in the dumps for a little bit, so they need to focus on adding talent to the organization and eventually, good things should happen. Allie certainly wasn’t only the 52nd most talented player in the draft class. He has a big, durable workhorse frame at 6’4, 225 and an aggressive, attacking mentality on the mound. His fastball can sit in the high 90′s, and his slider can touch 88-89 MPH. If he improves his changeup, he could be a really good starter. If not, that sounds like closer stuff.

However, his bonus demands and command troubles concerned teams. Players that can’t throw strikes often don’t advance very far, but Allie is only 20 years old. Coaches and development staff can work to improve mechanics and approach to work out those issues. It’s absolutely a risk to invest in a pitcher like Allie because he’s raw and not even close to reaching his potential. Isn’t it worth taking though? A bad team needs to add talent, even if their floors aren’t very high. The Pirates won’t make the playoffs by acquiring 5th starters and second division starters. At the other end of the spectrum, do teams like the Yankees have anything to lose themselves? They’re a really good team and probably don’t need any middling players, even if they may reach the majors faster than Allie.

Now back to Cox. Baseball America said he was the best pure hitter in all of last year’s draft. He set an Arkansas record with a .429 batting average and has a great swing. He can hit to all fields and make a lot of contact. In his first pro season, he started at high-A in the Florida State League and batted .335 and a .819 OPS before a midseason promotion to AA. His average dipped below .300 there, but he was still solid, batting .380 in July and .333 in August. Between both levels, he finished with a .797 OPS. That’s pretty solid for a player in his first full year as a professional, but there are certainly legitimate concerns.

It’s possible to look at it one of two ways. He’s a bit of a tweener in all regards. Looking at him as a third baseman, his current position, he may lack the appropriate power to profile there. His swing is a bit flat, but those that are optimistic about Cox believe he will begin generating enough loft in his swing to hit home runs. His isolated power (SLG-BA) was higher in AA than high-A, but that’s to be expected from moving from the Florida State League to the Texas League. If he moves to a position where his bat profiles a little better, say second base, he would probably be an above average hitter, but he probably doesn’t have the athleticism to handle playing up the middle. A quick and dirty comparison could be made to former Cardinals prospect Brett Wallace. He was a college hitter drafted in the first round whose bat didn’t profile at the position he belongs at defensively, first base.

However, Cox has plenty of time to prove he’ll be different. He’s his own player and shouldn’t be pigeonholed into a convenient comparison just for the sake of doing so. There are reasons to be optimistic about his future, and it’s also fair to say it’s reasonable to have doubts about him.

That’s obviously it for Prospect A-Z. I hope everyone enjoyed my little trip around the minors highlighting some names to know. There were many more that I didn’t talk about, and it could make for a second series, but maybe it would be best left for another offseason. Thanks for reading.

Buhner, McGee, Drabek, McGriff… 18 years ago, Kramer entertained viewers in an episode of Seinfeld complaining about George Steinbrenner’s penchant for trading away prospects that became quality major leaguers. In the present day, did the Yankees add another player to the list in the trade that brought them Javier Vazquez before the 2010 season? That would be Arodys Vizcaino. He hadn’t even pitched in a full season league at this point, but analysts recognized that he had great stuff and could eventually make an impact for Atlanta. He joined the Braves at the end of 2011 to chip in for an overworked bullpen.

At the time of the trade, Vazquez was coming off a great 2009 season with the Braves. Keith Law generated controversy by voting him 2nd in the Cy Young balloting that year, but it was certainly a defensible pick. He pitched 219 innings, a season high since he was traded from Montreal and posted career bests in ERA, WHIP and K/9. However, plenty of people thought the Yankees were making a mistake by acquiring Vazquez. He had an awful second half in his first stint in New York in 2004 and some felt he couldn’t handle the pressure of pitching in a market like New York. However, advocates of the trade pointed out that he wouldn’t be expected to be the team’s ace this time around. It still didn’t work out.

Somewhat reminiscent of the 90′s Braves, Atlanta has a deep rotation in the majors and throughout the minors. In July, they refused to part with their minor league arms for Carlos Beltran, a decision that may have cost them a playoff berth in 2011. In the majors, they already have Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson and Brandon Beachy. Their salary dump of Derek Lowe to Cleveland opened up a spot for Mike Minor or Randall Delgado to stick in the majors, and of course Julio Teheran and Vizcaino appeared for them in 2011 as well. That’s a lot of potential ML starters, ranging from top of the rotation to back end guys.

That could be why Vizcaino ends up in the bullpen long term. He’s had injury issues in the past, including an elbow injury that cost him significant time in 2010. In 2011, he pitched a career high 114.1 innings between the minors and majors, and it’s fair to say he probably would’ve thrown more had the Braves not spent the last month or so prepping him for a September callup as a reliever. He’ll need to prove he has the durability to remain in a rotation, but if not, he could be a great late inning reliever in a bullpen already stocked with them.

He offers three potential plus pitches now that his changeup is developing, so he has the arsenal to start if he can pitch 180 innings in a season. His fastball sits in the 92-94 range as a starter, and he can touch higher with movement. His out pitch is a curveball with sharp movement, and his changeup allows him to have success against left handed batters. Sometimes pitchers who have a cloudy future in terms of starting or relieving are limited because they can’t throw a changeup, but it’s the durability concerns that would keep Vizcaino out of a rotation. In addition to his prior injuries, his 6’0, 190 pound frame is a bit small compared to most major league starters.

Vizcaino should start 2012 back at AAA Gwinnett. The Braves rushed him, and not necessarily in a bad way, to the majors last year, and he could use some more minor league experience. There’s not really a spot for him in the majors now anyway. Minor, Delgado and Teheran should all be in front of him in the competition for the last spot in Atlanta’s rotation, and Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty should have the late innings covered until Fredi Gonzalez runs them into the ground again. Vizcaino can take time and prove he can start in the International League as long as he Braves don’t have injury issues.

Will the Yankees regret the trade? It’s certainly possible. For the last two seasons, they’ve had a hard time filling out their rotation behind C.C. Sabathia. A.J. Burnett appears to be a bust, and although Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia filled in admirably last year, but they need more choices with upside because it’s tough to count on pitchers like Garcia every season in the AL East. It looks like Hal Steinbrenner is going to have to admit that “Vizcaino was a good prospect, no question about it, but my baseball people love Javier Vazquez’s arm. They kept saying ‘Javier Vazquez, Javier Vazquez!”

Come back tomorrow for the last Friday entry in Prospect A-Z. Will it be the Mets’ new top prospect, a Mets infielder many say is overrated or the Mets’ rival’s top outfield prospect?

Last week, Prospect A-Z wrapped up with Tyler Skaggs, the lefty Arizona received from Anaheim in the Dan Haren trade during the 2010 season. Skaggs has emerged as a very good pitching prospect and has advanced through the minors quickly. Just three years after he was drafted by the Angels, Skaggs could make his ML debut sometime in 2012. He was a part of a rotation at AA Mobile with great potential. That staff also included Trevor Bauer, Jarrod Parker, Wade Miley and Pat Corbin. Today, Prospect A-Z picks back up again with perhaps the most talked about minor leaguer in the Rays blogosphere, shortstop Tim Beckham.

Tim Beckham, SS, Tampa Bay Rays (2011: AA Montomgery, AAA Durham)

In one respect, being picked first overall was unfair to Beckham from the beginning. He was sandwiched as the first pick between David Price and Stephen Strasburg, two guys that everyone knew had elite, probably can’t miss talent. No one in the 2008 draft really did, but someone had to be taken first overall. At the time, he was considered to be a toolsy, high school shortstop that could develop into an above average player. He never really had star potential, but as the best high school position player with the chance for five average or better tools, it’s easy to see why he was coveted as a top pick.

Entering the 2008 season, the likely first overall pick wasn’t Beckham, but Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez. Surely the Rays would be interested after they spent the previous spring and summer scouting his Vanderbilt teammate, David Price. Even though Evan Longoria was about to emerge as maybe the best third baseman in baseball, Alvarez could always move to first base or designated hitter. He certainly had the bat for it; entering the 2008 season, Alvarez had 40 home runs in his college career, and it was clear that he was a top amateur slugger. Over the course of a season, things can change.

Early in the season, Alvarez suffered from a hamate injury which seems to have plagued so many hitters in recent years. He missed about 1/3 of the season, and his statistics suffered. He didn’t hit for as much power, and his draft stock slid. On the flipside, another college hitter saw his stock rise dramatically, Buster Posey of Florida State. He had just learned how to catch two years earlier after playing shortstop until his sophomore season, and he was a great athlete probably capable of playing any position. In his junior season, Posey posted phenomenal stats: .463 BA, .566 OBP, .879 SLG and 26 home runs in 68 games. The Rays chose Beckham though, and the Giants were fortunate enough to land Posey later.

Beckham has had an interesting career. It’s difficult to say he’s failing because to me, that would mean getting held up at a level and not advancing. Beckham has risen steadily through the system, he’s just never stood out like one would expect from someone taken first overall. Since he started his full season career in 2009, his OPS’ each year have been .717, .705 and .736. His batting averages have been .275, .256 and .271. His on base percentages have been .328, .346 and .328. His slugging percentages have been .389, .359 and .408. He certainly deserves credit for being a consistent performer when he’s younger than most players at that particular level, but that doesn’t necessarily lend itself to a promising major league career.

Where does Beckham fit in among first overall picks? He’s one of six that have never made the majors, although three of the others, including 2011 teammate Matt Bush, likely will. Steve Chilcott and Brien Taylor both retired without having played in the majors. I’ll break down the remaining 39 first overall picks into categories: below average (fewer than six years of service time,) average (six to 10 years of service time, no All-Star appearances,) good (at least one All-Star appearance or 10+ years of service time,) and great (multiple All-Star appearances.) Pretty arbitrary, but let’s look anyway. An asterisk indicates their career is ongoing and still has a chance to move up.

Have not appeared
Tim Beckham (2008, Rays)
Matt Bush (2004, Padres)*
Steve Chilcott (1966, Mets)
Gerrit Cole (2011, Pirates)
Bryce Harper (2010, Nationals)*
Brien Taylor (1991, Yankees)

Below average
Shawn Abner (1984, Mets)
Matt Anderson (1997, Tigers)
Bryan Bullington (2002, Pirates)
Al Chambers (1979, Mariners)
David Clyde (1973, Rangers)
Danny Goodwin (1971, White Sox; 1975, Angels)
Luke Hochevar (2006, Royals)*
Stephen Strasburg (2009, Nationals)*
Paul Wilson (1994, Mets)

Average
Kris Benson (1996, Pirates)
Ron Blomberg (1966, Yankees)
Mike Ivie (1969, Padres)
Jeff King (1986, Pirates)
Ben McDonald (1989, Orioles)
Dave Roberts (1972, Padres)
Delmon Young (2003, Devil Rays)*

Good
Bill Almon (1974, Padres)
Floyd Bannister (1976, Astros)
Tim Belcher (1983, Twins)
Andy Benes (1988, Padres)
Pat Burrell (1998, Phillies)
Tim Foli (1967, Mets)
Bob Horner (1978, Braves)
Mike Moore (1981, Mariners)
Phil Nevin (1992, Astros)
B.J. Surhoff (1985, Brewers)

Great
Harold Baines (1977, White Sox)
Jeff Burroughs (1968, Rangers/Senators)
Shawon Dunston (1982, Cubs)
Darin Erstad (1995, Angels)
Adrian Gonzalez (2000, Marlins)
Josh Hamilton (1999, Devil Rays)
Chipper Jones (1990, Braves)
Joe Mauer (2001, Twins)
Rick Monday (1965, A’s)
David Price (2007, Devil Rays)
Alex Rodriguez (1993, Mariners)
Darryl Strawberry (1980, Mets)
Justin Upton (2005, Diamondbacks)

Obviously Stephen Strasburg probably won’t finish his career with the below average criteria. It’s interesting that it seems like the great career group is skewed towards players in recent seasons. Where does Beckham fit in? Right now, I could see him settling into the average player group with a career as a fringe starter/utility infielder for several seasons. He’s still very young and anything could happen, but his career performance so far suggests that anything more than that is probably unlikely.

Come back tomorrow to read about a guy the Rangers hope is the next pitching sensation.

When the news broke of Dan Haren‘s trade to Anaheim last year, people immediately questioned the wisdom in letting an interim GM trade a big part of the franchise like Haren. He was having a down year, but it proved to just be a blip on the radar. At the time, it didn’t seem like the Diamondbacks got fair value at all, but the perception seems to be changing, and that’s thanks to Tyler Skaggs’ emergence. He was the PTBNL in that deal originally, and now it’s clear he’s the big catch in the trade. Meanwhile, Jerry DiPoto is now Haren’s general manager in Anaheim, and there’s no interim tag.

DiPoto has made quite a splash in his first offseason as a general manager. He came virtually out of nowhere to steal Albert Pujols right under the noses of St. Louis and Miami, and when C.J. Wilson made it clear he wanted to play close to home, and even though Anaheim didn’t really need to spend big money on the rotation, they made it work at a reasonable rate for both parties. They proved to be within striking distance of the Rangers last year, and now the back to back AL champs have to be worried. It should be a great race in 2012.

Back to Skaggs though. The Diamondbacks were happy to trade for him in 2010 after just missing out on him in the previous draft. He has a very good feel for pitching compared to most pitchers that come out of high school, and the Angels started him out in the Midwest League in his first full year as a professional. He represented Cedar Rapids in the All-Star Game, and by the time of the trade, he had a 3.61 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and had he recorded one fewer out, he would have 82 strikeouts in 82 innings.

Two weeks after the trade deadline, Skaggs was finally able to pitch for the Diamondbacks organization. Draft picks aren’t allowed to be traded until one year after they signed, and he didn’t sign until the deadline right on 8/15. So for two weeks, he couldn’t pitch in games. He finished the year by making four short starts for Arizona’s affiliate in the MWL, striking out 20 and only walking four in 16 innings. It was an impressive showing, but there were still a few doubts about his future upside.

One year later, those doubts seem to have been erased. Although it was in Visalia which is one of few parks in the league favorable to pitchers, Skaggs conquered the Cal League. He started the All-Star Game against the Carolina League, a great honor for a league pretty deep with pitchers this season. A greater honor came in July when he was tabbed to start the Futures Game for Team USA. This was in front of his future fans in Arizona. For Visalia, Skaggs struck out 11.2 batters per nine innings with a 3.22 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

The strikeout rate was particularly notable for Skaggs because scouts wanted to see his stuff continue to develop a little more after 2010. With a 6’4, 195 pound frame, it certainly wasn’t out of the question. His fastball needed a little more consistent velocity, and that should happen with his projectable frame. If his numbers against right handed batters are any indication, his changeup is improving. In addition to his curveball which is his best pitch, Skaggs has the potential for three plus pitches. He might have a future as a #2 starter.

Skaggs finished the year at AA Mobile, and Diamondbacks had a glimpse of their future rotation. At one point during the year, other top prospects like Trevor Bauer and Jarrod Parker also pitched for the BayBears, although Parker is now with the Oakland organization. Pat Corbin and Wade Miley also spent time in AA, and all of those guys have the potential to pitch in a major league rotation someday. Arizona went from worst to first from 2010 to 2011, and their future should be in good hands with great pitching depth in the organization. With Trevor Cahill, Dan Hudson and Ian Kennedy already manning the rotation, as long as they continue to build around Justin Upton, they will be in good shape.

Prospect A-Z will be taking a three day weekend and return on Tuesday with one of the following: Will it be another top pitching prospect for Seattle, a former #1 pick that’s been a disappointment or the Phillies’ strikeout king? Merry Christmas to all readers. May you, your family and friends all receive copies of Bus Leagues Experience Volume 2 under the tree.

Robbie Ross, LHP, Texas Rangers (2011: A+ Myrtle Beach, AA Frisco)

The Rangers system thinned out a bit with the deadline deal that brought them Mike Adams from San Diego. With Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin out of the organization, Ross secures his spot as a top 10 prospect in a deep organization with a lot of lower level, high ceiling talent. He’s one of three pitchers the Rangers have in the upper minors that could help the major league rotation soon, joining Martin Perez and Neil Ramirez, all of which could be in AAA to start 2012.

Ross signed an overslot deal in the second round of the 2008 draft but didn’t make his pro debut until the following year with Spokane in the Northwest League. He proved to be too good for the league, finishing first in strikeouts per nine innings while posting a 2.66 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He moved up to start the following season with Hickory in the South Atlantic League where he continued to pitch well. His ERA had a slight decrease while his WHIP went up just a little bit. In 2009 with Spokane, a remarkable 85% (approximation) of his outs came via strikeout or on the ground. With Hickory the next year, that percentage declined below 70%, still impressive, but it was a dramatic decrease in strikeout rate.

Nonetheless, it was an impressive showing, and the Rangers rewarded him with a midseason promotion to Bakersfield. Of course, I use the term rewarded loosely because he had to pitch in Bakersfield, hardly rewarding for pitchers. His stats reflected the difficult environment. His strikeout and groundball rates went up which is good, but his opponents batting averaged increased 60 points to .305. Was it a matter of luck? 84% of his outs came via strikeout or on the ground which shows that he was still effective in some ways. His BB/9 was still decent, so perhaps he was just a victim of a high BABIP.

Ross didn’t receive a promotion to start the 2011 season, but he did go from Bakersfield to the beach thanks to the Rangers switching high-A affiliates to Myrtle Beach. They went from a hitters league to a pitchers league, and his numbers improved greatly, probably not just due to the change in parks. His strikeout rate increased, and his ERA dropped to 2.26 in 20 starts. He returned to the Cal League for the California/Carolina League All-Star Game, and about a month and a half later, he reached AA. He made six strong starts to continue his breakout season. He struck out nearly a batter an inning while only allowing one hit/walk per inning.

Ross averaged just about 6 innings per start in 2011, an impressive feat for a minor leaguer. For Ross, it’s especially important because durability is one of the primary concerns about his career. At 5’11 and 185 pounds, he doesn’t have the ideal size for a starter, but he could always be one of the rare exceptions and succeed. Despite being shorter than the average pitcher, his low 90′s fastball has great movement which is why he generates all the ground balls he does. If he can keep developing his slider to become a consistent, above average pitch, his strikeout rate should continue to improve. Ross has also shown a good feel for a changeup.

Questions linger though. Are his secondary pitches good enough to allow him to continue starting? Is he durable enough to handle a starter’s workload year after year? Ross still has plenty of time to provide answers. He could start 2012 back in AA without much experience there, but he’ll be at AAA at some point. Maybe the Rangers are a good organization for him. With C.J. Wilson, Neftali Feliz, Alexi Ogando and Derek Holland moving in and out of the rotation and bullpen, they have experience in handling those transitions well.

Come back tomorrow to wrap up this week of Prospect A-Z. Will it be a Red Sox hitter that tends to strike out, a starter that will help continue to remake the Diamondbacks rotation or a solid Nationals pitcher now troubled by elbow problems?

Derek Norris, C, Washington Nationals (2011: AA Harrisburg)

When the Nationals finish over .500 and start competing for the postseason, the majority of people are going to be surprised. Maybe they shouldn’t be. We all know about Ryan Zimmerman being a franchise player and generational talents in Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, but there’s more to this franchise. They have young talent across the diamond in the majors, especially up the middle with Wilson Ramos, Danny Espinosa and Ian Desmond who admittedly has to improve greatly on his 2011 season. Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen developed into a very good late inning combo. In recent seasons, they’ve added two elements to the franchise that can lead to a turnaround: willingness to spend big in free agency and increased emphasis on drafting and player development.

Their big free agent, Jayson Werth, didn’t work out, but he’s a talented player that could easily turn it around at any time. They’re looking to the free agent market again to upgrade their rotation although they may not find an answer. They could also explore trades thanks to their investments in amateur talent. They’re adding pieces to the farm system, and paying the big bonuses tends to pay off later. Good times are ahead for this franchise if ownership remains as committed to winning as they’ve shown in the past two years.

Derek Norris could definitely be a part of that future. After signing for $210,000 out of high school in 2007, Norris hit for a low average in the Gulf Coast League, but he showed what would be his two calling cards at the plate for his career to date: power and patience. In some years, he could be among the three true outcome league leaders. With Harrisburg in 2011, over half of his at bats resulted in a home run, walk or strikeout. In his only two full, healthy seasons, Norris has hit at least 20 home runs.

That kind of power is rare for a catcher, and he has plenty of it. In 2011, five catchers in the majors hit 20 or more home runs. If he develops, Norris should be able to join that group. His skillset is a little different from that set of five though. He’s far more patient than J.P. Arencibia and Matt Wieters, and he should be able to provide better defense than Carlos Santana and Brian McCann. Maybe he develops the all-around package that Mike Napoli showed this season with Texas, but even the most optimistic Norris backers have to agree that’s incredibly unlikely.

Norris really didn’t catch much before turning pro, but it didn’t take him long to get acclimated to the position. His arm is average or above average, but he’s always gotten the most out of it and posted great caught stealing percentages. He’s showing improvements in other aspects of the defensive game as well. Norris has gotten better at blocking pitches in the dirt, and his receiving should get good enough for him to be a very good defensive catcher.

The story of the last two years for Norris probably hasn’t been a statistic or accomplishment though. After the 2009 season, he broke a hamate bone which is a hand injury that can be devastating for hitters. It tends to sap power from the player for at least a year, and sometimes it never comes back. Complications from his surgery delayed Norris’ 2010 debut, and it did take away some of his home run power. In 94 games, he hit just 12 home runs, but his ISO (SLG-BA) was still very good. He went to the AFL and performed very well, and he carried that momentum into 2011 with Harrisburg where he slugged 20 home runs.

The interesting thing for Norris is the effect the injury apparently had on his batting average. According to the reports, he should be a solid average hitter with the ability to hit to all fields with a compact swing. However, in 2010 he batted .235, and this season he was down to .210. If he doesn’t improve his average next season, it may be time to re-evaluate his hit tool, but he could still have a lot of value in the majors because of the rest of his skills. He made better contact in the AFL but didn’t hit for much power, so maybe he can carry that over to next year like his previous AFL stint.

Will his future be with the Nationals though? Wilson Ramos is coming off a quality rookie season with a solid year at the plate and good defense. Norris probably has higher upside, but he’ll still have to earn a spot in the lineup with an established, young starter in place right now. Norris will have a very good bat, but probably still not good enough to profile at first base which is probably the only other defensive position he can play. If the Nationals want to go the trade route for a starter, Norris could be used as a major piece to land James Shields, but it may be tough for them to complete the package with other desirable prospects.

Come back next week for O’s edition of Prospect A-Z. Will it be Texas’ well-rounded third baseman, the Cardinals’ new Dominican slugger or a Rays catcher coming off a historic season?

The promise was there because of Moore’s prototypical size and his top notch stuff. His fastball and curveball were both great pitches, and those allowed him to rack up strikeout after strikeout in the South Atlantic League even though his changeup wasn’t very far along yet. Moore made strides the next season in the Florida State League where a strong second half allowed his BB/9 to drop down to 3.8 while his strikeout rate remained consistent. He struck out 208 in the regular season which led all of minor league baseball. With the improvements in command, Moore’s stock also improved.

Moore had a pattern of getting off to slow starts during season and improving in the second half, and after a rough April, it looked like it may happen again with Montgomery. However, he bucked the trend and settled in to have an incredible season. His strikeout rate was down a bit but who cares? His walk rate was well below 3.0, his hit rate was its lowest since his second season in the Appy League, and he was emerging as one of the game’s best prospects, if he wasn’t already.He was putting it all together. The Rays typically promote players a bit slower than the continents drift, but it was impossible to deny Moore the challenge of moving to AAA. He threw his first career no hitter with Montgomery, and it might not be his last.

His national coming out party (to prospect fans anyway) was probably the Futures Game at Arizona in July. He was in the midst of an incredible season, and fans wanted to see if he could live up to the hype. In short… yes. He was firing high 90′s fastballs, and his curveball had so much velocity and movement that people were wondering if he had a new, great pitch. He was amped up to pitch in a short burst, and there’s not much to take from Futures Game appearances, but it was impressive. He made one more start with Montgomery and was then promoted to AAA Durham.

Usually it takes players some time to adjust to new levels, but Moore may have been even better. His strikeout rate rose to 13.5 per nine innings, and even though his walk rate ticked up a bit, his hit rate improved. His WHIP was nearly identical to his Montgomery WHIP, and his ERA was down. He was a key cog in Durham’s rotation which was lacking depth in the rotation. He helped them reach the playoffs once again, but they were quickly dispatched by Columbus. The question had to be asked: would he be promoted to the majors?

The conventional wisdom was no; the Rays closely monitor service time for young players, and it appeared as if he may have been wearing down at the end of the season. However, the Rays were suddenly in the playoff hunt, and they could use some firepower in the bullpen. He was promoted.

Probably due to nerves, he struggled early on. His fastball location was poor, but he quickly settled in. The Rays needed a starter to step in late in the season, and they went to Moore. In five innings, he struck out 11 Yankees and only allowed five baserunners. It still wasn’t really his coming out party to fans not already familiar with him though, as impressive as it was. That would be just eight days later when the Rays tabbed Moore to be their game one starter against the Rangers in the ALDS. James Shields, David Price and Jeremy Hellickson were all unavailable for the start of the series, and Joe Maddon took a risk and gave the ball to the talented yet inexperienced Moore.

Despite what Buck Martinez desperately tried convincing viewers, Moore’s success that day wasn’t simply due to the shadows or the Rangers’ inexperience in dealing with him, although the latter is much more plausible. The Rays had plenty of success in the same environment. Moore was sharp, pitching seven shutout innings while only allowing four baserunners. He threw strikes, made nice adjustments in the middle innings and completely shut down one of the league’s best lineups. He entered game four in a relief role and allowed a run, but it was still a solid outing.

There’s no telling what Moore’s ceiling is. He could be the best pitching prospect in all of baseball with a true ace ceiling. In a recent survey conducted by ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, big league talent evaluators were virtually split when asked if they would prefer Moore or phenom Stephen Strasburg (Yu Darvish was also an option, but no one chose him.) Hopefully the Rays don’t have him start the season in AAA due to service time concerns, but it would be understandable. What may help Moore reach his potential is the often undervalued sixth tool- humor.

Matt Moore Commercial

The tool is still raw, perhaps lagging behind the rest of his game, but any evaluator can see the potential is there. He starts off uneasy and tentative, stammering through his lines and asking Little Caesars if they are in fact Little Caesars despite looking right at their menu and dialing their phone number seconds earlier. He slowly gains confidence throughout the commercial and begins showing his comic upside. At the end, he looks like a finished product. “Hope they’re hungry” is delivered perfectly as he walks away. If he can fully develop his humor tool, he may be able to help Evan Longoria finally find that missing cap.

Come back Monday for the continuation of Prospect A-Z. Will it be Washington’s power hitting catcher, Detroit’s high priced third base prospect or a Toronto pitcher who probably couldn’t have pitched better this season?

Since the 2008 draft, it was assumed that Tim Beckham would be the shortstop of the future for the Rays. After just one season in the organization, Lee has moved in front of Beckham as the team’s best shortstop prospect. Questions about Beckham linger; he’s essentially held serve at every level, never performing poorly enough to not be promoted the next season but never really standing out either. Does he still have the tools? Can he play shortstop? Can he hit for power?

Lee on the other hand enjoyed a breakout season with the Rays in 2011. He’s always had great tools, and for the first time in his brief pro career, they clearly translated into in-game performance. With Charlotte in the Florida State League, he hit .318 with a .389 OBP and .443 SLG. That was more power than he previously displayed, but the increase in extra base hits was primarily thanks to his speed allowing him to turn doubles into triples. Like Jurickson Profar on Tuesday, Lee’s solid plate approach sets him apart from a lot of prospects.

The Cubs always try to maintain a presence scouting amateur talent in Asia, and Lee was one of their biggest finds. He would be a five tool player if he hit for more power, but he’s still expected to add strength as he gets older and hit for more extra base hits than he does now. He has great speed, and he has the potential to hit at the top of a lineup in the majors when combined with his patient plate approach. He has good bat control and makes consistent contact, and despite having Tommy John surgery a few years ago, has a strong arm to go along with great range to make him a very good defender.

Yet the Cubs still parted with him in the Matt Garza trade. He was considered the second prospect in the deal behind Chris Archer, but due to Archer’s struggles and Lee’s strong 2011 season, Lee is now considered the better prospect. They may have felt he was expendable because Starlin Castro was already manning the position in the majors, but it’s expected that he has to move to another position at some point in his career. The Cubs must’ve believed they could contend when they made the trade, and it’s now clear that a rebuilding franchise could’ve used the prospects.

He was promoted to AA Montgomery for the last month of the season when the Rays bumped Beckham up to AAA. He struggled in 100 at bats in the Southern League, but that’s not uncommon for 20 year olds reaching that level. Despite hitting below .200, Lee was still able to show patience and hit for roughly the same amount of power he showed at Charlotte, so it wasn’t a total disaster.

Lee heads a Rays organization that suddenly seems very deep at shortstop. Some players may have to move off for defensive reasons or may not develop their bats enough to reach the majors, but it’s fair to say that there are about seven intriguing names in the system currently playing the position. They’re so deep at the lower levels that at least one or two will have to rotate in and out at different positions to get at bats. Joining Lee and Beckham on the depth chart are three highly touted 2011 draftees, Jake Hager, Brandon Martin and Johnny Eierman. Derek Dietrich from the 2010 class provides a solid bad, and Juniel Querecuto received a sizable bonus signing out of Venezuela.

Lee will start back at Montgomery in 2012 and likely experience more success. He represented the World squad in the Futures Game in consecutive years, and he could easily make it three in a row. With the Rays’ recent struggles at shortstop, barring a Tim Beckham breakout, Lee could be a long term answer at the position. Jason Bartlett wasn’t able to maintain his fluky 2009 statistics, and Reid Brignac regressed badly at the plate. Lee could debut at some point in 2013 and may not give up the position after that.

Prospect A-Z will wrap up this week with the Rays’ rookie strikeout sensation.

Casey Kelly, RHP, San Diego Padres (2011: AA San Antonio)

Coming out of high school, Kelly had the opportunity to play Quarterback at Tennessee, and the Volunteers probably could’ve used him. He fell to the Red Sox at the end of the first round in 2008 because of his large bonus demands, and he also wanted to play every day instead of pitch. The Red Sox accommodated his wishes, and he didn’t have success at the plate. He played in 36 games in his pro debut, splitting time between the Gulf Coast League and New York Penn League. He hit just .215 between the two levels with a .255 OBP.

The Red Sox wanted him to pitch though. In 2009, Kelly started on the mound in the South Atlantic League. In 48.1 innings, he proved why he was considered such a polished high school pitcher from the previous draft. He posted outstanding stats across the board: 1.12 ERA, .85 WHIP and a 4.33 K:BB ratio. He was promoted to the Carolina League and posted similar numbers in 46.2 IP. Kelly still wanted to hit though, so he did just that for the second half of the season. The Red Sox were able to limit his innings, and Kelly was able to realize what Boston did all along: he needed to focus on pitching.

That’s exactly what he did in 2010, and it didn’t go so well. Even though he only had 95 innings of pro experience, he pitched in AA at 20 years old. A lingering finger injury and mechanical difficulties led to a rough season for Kelly. His ERA finished at 5.31 and his WHIP at 1.61 in 95 innings. His BB/9 jumped to 3.3 which is still better than average, but he’s expected to have better command than that. His hit rate jumped through the roof, but he did post the best K/9 of his career.

Despite the down season, Kelly was still highly regarded in prospect circles. He was the centerpiece of the big trade that sent slugger Adrian Gonzalez to Boston. His style fits Petco Park well and if he continues developing, it’ll allow him to put up better numbers than he would in other environments. He has to make it there first, and he still has a lot of development to do. He was expected to start the season in AAA Tucson, but the Padres held him back at AA San Antonio.

It wasn’t expected to be easy. Even though he had spent the previous season at AA, there were still some factors working against Kelly. His career high in innings was still only 95, he battled injuries in his first full season of pitching, and it’s never easy to pitch in the Texas League as he would be doing. He ended up showing a lot of improvement. His hit and walk rates both showed improvement, but his strikeout rated dipped into dangerous territory. It appears that Kelly may not have the stuff to pitch at the top of a rotation, but again, he’s young and has plenty of time to make improvements.

He has the potential for three above average to plus pitches with his fastball, changeup and curveball. His fastball has gained velocity in recent seasons, and it has nice movement. His changeup is his second best pitch, and his curve has made strides. If he continues to smooth out his mechanics, his command will remain above average, and he should be able to reach his ceiling of a #3 or maybe even #2 starter. He still has an athletic, projectable frame and could see his stuff continue to improve.

Kelly fits in near the top of a Padres system with great depth with a number of players that don’t have star potential. Over the summer, San Diego added two more pitchers with nice command that will fit in well at Petco Park, Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland. In the brief regime of Jed Hoyer, they pumped more money into amateur players to add more talent. Josh Byrnes will need to keep that up. It’s a system that’s actually a bit reminiscent to Cleveland’s last year with a lot of good and very good prospects but probably no stars. I’m sure the Padres would love to produce a Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall in one year but maybe do without trading a Drew Pomeranz or Alex White.

Tomorrow’s Prospect A-Z will be one of the following players: a Rays shortstop who missed some time in 2011 with chicken pox, the first Italian born player to ever play in the majors or a young catcher who made an impact in a brief time for Boston.

Jose Iglesias, SS, Boston Red Sox (2011: AAA Pawtucket, MLB Boston)

Cuba has produced two highly touted, slick fielding shortstops in the last couple years. At the end of the 2009 season, the Red Sox signed Jose Iglesias for a six million dollar bonus. He made his unofficial debut in the Arizona Fall League that offseason, and just after the start of the 2010 season, the Blue Jays signed Adeiny Hechavarria to a major league contract totaling 10 million. They’re about the same age, and Iglesias had to move to second base to accommodate Hechavarria on some national teams.

Hechavarria got the bigger contract, but I think the younger Iglesias will end up being the better player in the majors. Hechavarria is the better defensive player, but both are gold glove caliber. The difference comes in their bats. Not that a gold glove shortstop needs to be a middle of the order hitter, but players still have to reach a certain level at the plate and not be a complete black hole. There are doubts about whether or not both could do that, but it seems like scouts are more optimistic about Iglesias in that regard.

That’s not to say Iglesias is a slam dunk to hit. With Pawtucket in 2011, he only hit .235 and both his OBP and SLG were under .300. I’m not sure if a shortstop that fields every ball hit to the left side without fail would make up for a season at the plate like that. Scouts believe he will be able to hit with good bat control and bat speed, but the power will never be there. His aggressive approach works against him, and low on base percentages attest to that. He’s still young though, and it can take time for Cuban players to quickly adjust to American culture in the upper minors.

Hechavarria’s numbers were actually better this year but still unimpressive. He has the same aggressive approach that prevents him from reaching base often, and he’s not going to hit for power either. His pro career started with Toronto’s Florida State League affiliate, but he was quickly promoted to AA where he improved partially due to being able to make a connection with manager Luis Rivera. In 2011, he was promoted to Las Vegas for a short time where he crushed the ball. It was a small sample size in a great hitting environment, so it’s unlikely that he made significant strides in that short period.

Both players have had recent AFL stints, and 2012 will be pivotal seasons for both. With Marco Scutaro and Yunel Escobar currently handing shortstop for Boston and Toronto respectively, an injury will probably have to occur for either Cuban to get playing time this season. Scutaro is more replaceable than Escobar for sure, but both prospects need to show they’re deserving of becoming ML starters. They’ll both go to AAA in 2012, and Iglesias needs to do much better in his second chance at the level. He made his ML debut in 2011, but it was a very brief cup of coffee.

Tomorrow’s Prospect A-Z entry will obviously be the letter J. Will it be a hot shortstop from Curacao, a toolsy Cubs infielder people can’t stop talking about or a fireballing Royals reliever?